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Just for fun, the latest Rasmussen poll on President Barack Obama’s
popularity will
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Posts are now being issued on this page, and dated, as and when I write them, and simultaneously collated into a monthly archive. This is the practice with most bloggers. |
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Climate Change: Lecture + Rebuttal + Refutation = Lawsuit? - 24th July 2010 Lecture Last January, I stumbled upon a 1˝ lecture the previous October in St Paul Minnesota by Lord Christopher Monckton, which tears to shreds the current convention/cult that the world is warming as never before and that it is all the fault of us humans and our penchant for burning fossil fuels. I referenced it in my blog in a post entitled “More Climate Faeces”, and conveniently provided the Youtube video, where you can still find it. In addition, you can download a 7.5 Mb PDF of his 86 slides here. He gave a shorter but not dissimilar lecture in Australia in February, to loud applause.
There have been some fascinating developments as a result of the October 2009 lecture, which are likely to lead to a media explosion that will largely demolish whatever faith is left in the climate changeology cult. It is already limping badly after the Climategate e-mails of November followed by the disastrous Nopenahagen Climate Change Conference in December. Three events have occurred.
The outcome of this affair is not going to be pretty for the University of St Thomas or for the climate changeology movement generally. Along with no doubt hundreds of others, I wrote to Father Dennis Dease who is president of this Catholic university, and said the following.
This is a battle that Prof Abraham cannot win and therefore neither can the University of St Thomas nor you as its head. This is because the central issue is one of demonstrable fact. On this issue, Lord Monckton is provably correct in virtually all instances and Prof Abraham is provably wrong, and so wrong that deliberate intent and a motive of malice can scarcely be denied. It is absolutely nothing to do with academic differences of opinion. The longer you choose to prolong
the dispute and allow Prof Abraham to prolong it, the more
unpleasant the penalties that both of you, as well as the
university, will ultimately suffer. Furthermore the longer it
festers, the worse will be the case in favour of anthropogenic
climate change in the court of global public opinion. After
Climategate and the disastrous Copenhagen conference, it surely
cannot withstand another global scandal. Apologise, withdraw the rebuttals from the internet and pay the 110 grand - and you can count yourselves lucky to escape so cheaply. As a fellow-Catholic, I am sure you also appreciate, as I do, the moral angle to this affair. It is a sin to deliberately lie, dissemble and bear false witness, as Lord Monckton has forcefully demonstrated that Professor Abraham has done. A Catholic University should have nothing to do with and immediately dissociate itself from such behaviour, or else it can hardly call itself Catholic. Yours truly, I do not expect a reply. Nor does even a proper investigation appear likely. = Lawsuit However, having now received the Lord's lengthy refutation letter and implicitly acknowledged, by virtue of the revised rebuttal, that he is at least partially correct, the University can no longer claim the justification of honest mistake. This can only mean even greater retribution when Nemesis eventually descends, as it undoubtedly will, most probably as a lawsuit. Or maybe two, with each side suing the other for defamation and libel (though I imagine no betting shop will give odds that the University will win either of them). Meantime, as mentioned, I expect this issue will go as viral as did the infamous Climategate e-mails, with consequences that seriously compound the existing damage to the cult. At least I hope so.
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Political Guide to Ireland - 19th July 2010 Ireland is an island to the west of Britain but Northern Ireland is just off the mainland - not the Irish mainland, the British mainland. The capital of Ireland is Dublin. It has a population of a million people, all of whom will be shopping in Newry this afternoon. They travel to Newry because it is in the North, where Sterling prices are lower because of Gordon's devaluations. The North is not part of Ireland or the €urozone, but shoppers from the South still pay in €uros. Under the Irish constitution, the North used to be in Ireland, but a successful 30-year campaign of violence for Irish unity ensured that it is now definitely in the UK. Had the campaign lasted longer the North might now be in France. Belfast is the capital of Northern Ireland. It has a population of half a million, half of whom have houses in Donegal. Donegal, in the west of Ireland, is in the north but not in the North. It is in the South. No, not the south, the South. All agree it is not in the east. There are two parliaments in Ireland.
Their respective jurisdictions are defined by the border, an imaginary line on the map to show fuel launderers where to dump chemical waste. Protestants are in favour of the border, which generates millions of pounds and €uros in smuggling for Catholics, who are opposed to it. Travel between the two states is complicated because Ireland is the only country in the world with two M1 motorways. The one in the North goes west to avoid the south and the one in the South goes north to minimise the price of drink. We have two types of democracy in Ireland.
Ireland has three economies - northern, southern and black. Only the black economy is in the black. The other two are in the red. All versions of the IRA claim to be the real IRA but only one of them is the Real IRA. The North's biggest industry is the production of IRAs. Consequently, we now have (at latest count) the Provisional, Continuity and Real IRA. The Real IRA is by far the most popular among young graffiti writers because it is the easiest to spell. Hat tip: Dave Parker in Spain
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The world cup snoozeroo is over; it is another four years before we will again have to get worked up (or fall asleep) over the next one, in Brazil. If ever there was a case for a complete review and overhaul of how soccer games are managed, surely the South Africa event had made it. It is bad enough that so few goals are scored: I calculated that in 2006 there were 40 minutes between each World Cup goal, and I doubt if 2010 was much different. It is why it cannot catch on in America, yet this is a problem quickly solved simply by widening the goal mouth. But the on-field management of the game is an ongoing train-wreck which continues to drive spectators and TV viewers (OK, me) crazy. There are a number of serious structural problems, which can nevertheless be remedied easily, cheaply and rapidly, if only there were the will to do so. Consider the injustice of:
Wrongly Allowed Goals Though the referee didn't spot the handball, nor did the linesmen, the TV footage clearly showed it. So Mr Henri and his Fr(h)enchmen were through and the Irish were out.
Wrongly Disallowed Goals The English went on to lose 4-1 and get kicked out of the tournament, but who knows how a draw at that crucial moment might have changed the game dynamics?
Cheating Rewarded
Unfortunately, though, Ghana missed the penalty, went on to lose the subsequent penalty shoot-out and so went home dispossessed and early. Yet Uruguay's profit from its blatant - and observed - cheating was entirely within the rules of soccer. No wonder Suárez was booed every time he touched the ball in the semi-final which, to general relief, Uruguay went on to lose against the Netherlands.
Diving Apart from its obvious unsportsmanship, it is distinctly unmanly to roll around weeping on the floor feigning injury when there is none. Soccer is supposed to be a game for men not schoolgirls. Italy's Daniele De Rossi, who crumbled to the ground in seeming agony after the slightest shirt-tug from New Zealand's Tommy Smith, was rewarded with a penalty. This evened the score and avoided an embarrassing defeat of the 2006 world champions by a soccer minnow like New Zealand (a bit different from NZ rugby!).
As some kind of divine justice, however, Italy never made it to the knock-out stages anyway. Neither did New Zealand - largely due to that penalty - but unlike Italy it was one of only nine teams which didn't lose a single game, despite being ranked 78th in the world. So while the reigning world champions left South Africa in disgrace, NZ did so with head held high. There were countless similar incidents of diving, many of which the referee also rewarded, though he also often ignored them. But diving per se is never actually punished, either during the game or after it. So you have nothing to lose (other than your manliness and self-respect).
Missed Fouls In the World Cup final, the referee issued a record-breaking 14 yellow cards for various fouls, nine against the Netherlands. Yet only one player, Dutchman Johnny Heitinga, was sent off. With its resultant one-man advantage, Spain eventually scored the match's winning only goal in the dying moments of extra time to secure the revered trophy for the first time. It was a bad-tempered game with fouls aplenty, especially by the Dutch, yet despite the yellow-card count, several more were missed by the ref but broadcast on TV. But if the referee doesn't spot your foul, you've got away scot-free.
Feeble Yellow Card
Conversely, the red card is such a harsh punishment that it is rarely issued. What is absent is a meaningful “medium-level” disciplinary measure that would inflict sufficient pain to constrain bad behaviour at an early stage, but without ruining the game.
Barracking the Referee Often he is clearly intimidated, to the extent of being driven back by a crowd of angry young men shouting and waving their arms because they happen to disagree with his decision. (The photo shows Manchester United doing the barracking.)
The ref appears to be powerless to deal with this kind of behaviour, and therefore gets more of it. In big games it's probably partly because the players are much better paid, more famous and more influential than he is, he doesn't want to blot his copybook for the future and, disgracefully, he cannot count on FIFA's unequivocal support.
Remedies Pretty simple, really. Learn from other games.
Introduce goal-line technology. If Wimbledon's hawk-eye system is deemed too slow, there is another promising German system known as Cairos GLT (= “goal line technology”). This involves burying wiring in the goal area and putting a chip in the football which sends an instant goal-no-goal signal via computer to the referee's wristwatch. It apparently costs just Ł7,000 per stadium. No doubt other technology systems are available. ŕOn discipline, copy rugby:
These simple and above all proven measures would hugely enhance soccer as a worthy game.
Soccer badly needs to enter the real world.
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Macondo Commentary - More Ignorance - 10th July 2010 I was asked by a colleague to provide some brief feedback on three posts about BP's Macondo blowout and oil spill. They are written by Richard Heinberg of the Post Carbon Institute, with titles suitably mordant in line with the PCI's own name.
Mr Heinberg, is a prolific American author of eight books and numerous treatises, as well as a public speaker, all on the need to wean ourselves off fossil fuels, that peak oil is imminent and that we are all pretty much doomed. Interestingly, although he gives the impression of being an academic, he doesn't seem to have graduated with any kind of third-level degree from anywhere, his main qualification being that he is a “Senior Fellow-in-Residence” at the Post Carbon Institute. The PCI is a small-ish think-tank (eight staff) in California established in 2003, which seems to be committed to promoting the man-made global-warming agenda. Answering the fundamental query whether the “climate crisis” is real or overblown, it devotes just 160 words ending with an exasperated “End of story”. Like any zealous religious cult, the PCI clearly has little patience with asinine questions. But, unqualified for anything as he appears to be, Mr Heinberg has penned no fewer than 4,237 words in the above three posts, and I have read every turgid one of them (so you don't have to). Judging from this selfless exercise, I would conclude that PCI Senior Fellowshipness relies not on the content was what is written but on volume, a carelessness towards facts, a rather incurious approach to science and engineering, and a generally flatulent writing style. For example, Mr Heinberg postulates (without any data) that the casing within the Macondo well might be breached, with reservoir pressure causing the whole well to collapse into a crater. This is ridiculous science. With a clear path for the reservoir pressure to escape up the wellbore driving gas and oil into the sea, there can be no differential forces at reservoir level to cause such a crater. He happily parrots consultant Matt Simon who says without a shred of evidence that it could take 24 years to kill Macondo (my maximum estimate would be one year). Mr Simon is the author of “Twilight in the Desert” which makes a case that Saudi Arabian oil production has peaked. In fact, as I wrote four years ago, Mr Simon seems completely unaware of Saudi's huge scope to squeeze much more oil out of its existing fields and to discover more fields. It simply has to apply the latest technology and accept robust returns on investment rather than the ridiculously outlandish levels to which those spoiled princes have become accustomed. Mr Simons' analysis and prognostications can be too shallow and should not be accepted at face value. Actually, Mr Heinberg is only too willing to anyone who will enhance his doomsday storyline, without a thought for the quality of his source. He also repeats multiple errors, for example,
He writes a long, meandering, meaningless essay about the need for “courage”. He seems to mean that Governments should do stuff (green stuff of course) even when they're electorate don't want it, which is normally the prerogative of totalitarian regimes. But I can't go on any further; it's all just too boring - but you get the idea. Not a word that Mr Heinberg writes should be taken seriously. From a position of considerable ignorance, he is spoofing from start to finish, sprinkling the occasional fact here and there like some kind of stardust. I wouldn't suggest you not bother clicking on the three links at the start of this post.
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| Ground Zero Mosque - 8th
July 2010 The idea of building a giant mosque just a few yards from Ground Zero in New York is beyond parody. But it's apparently going ahead (unless Americans can screw up the courage to stop it). It seems that many Americans think that objecting to such a mosque is somehow, well, nasty to Muslims, without regard to whether such a mosque might itself be somehow, well, nasty to non-Muslims, especially those connected with the viciously murdered 2,976 innocents on that terrible day in September 2001.
One can hardly conceive of a more insulting or tasteless tribute to those 36 upstanding citizens who were violently slaughtered by an Islamic “Crescent of Embrace”. This one-minute video, titled “The Audacity of Jihad”, sets out the case against the Ground Zero mosque.
There are, however, even moves afoot to suppress it.
Late Note (27th July 2010)
The mosque is to be called
“Cordoba
House”,
a choice of name which As Raymond Ibrahim, a Christian Arab scholar of Islam
recalls, The symbolism is unmistakeable. These are extraordinary times.
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Ignorance Rules Reactions to Macondo Blowout
Undoubtedly, the uncontrolled blowout of oil and gas from the 5,500 metre deep Macondo well while being drilled by BP in 1,522 metres of water is amongst the worst disasters to have resulted in the history of the hydrocarbon exploration and production industry. Only the most dedicated and skilful of human ingenuity and engineering grunt, without regard to cost, will bring it back under control and make it permanently safe. But, despite what “expert” after “expert”, up to and including the White House energy adviser (and top environmental adviser) Carol Browner and her boss have told us, it is certainly not the worst such catastrophe, at least not yet. Eleven men were killed, which is an untold and never-ending tragedy for each of their families. But, for example, when in 1988 the North Sea's Piper Alpha platform, operated by America's Occidental Petroleum exploded (twice) and was destroyed, the appalling death toll was 167. We are similarly misinformed that Macondo represents America's worst environmental disaster, worse even than the Exxon Valdez in 1989. Firstly, though we know the oil tanker Exxon Valdez spilled 250,000 barrels of heavy viscous crude because that was its capacity, no-one knows the Macondo flow rate because there is no way to measure it. Every single figure being bandied about, from 2,000 bbl/day to 80,000 or more is based on nothing other than humans eyeballing the flow as depicted by underwater TV cameras; there is no science involved whatsoever other than measuring the oil that is recovered. In any case what is relevant is the environmental damage being done. The Valdez ran aground and spewed its treacly load just four kilometres from Bligh Island and fifteen from the Alaskan mainland, so all the wild life and beaches were instantly devastated. By contrast, Macondo is 80 kilometres offshore and its crude is lighter and more volatile, so that much of it is simply evaporating in the balmy Gulf of Mexico weather, being biodegraded by wave action and spreading out thinly as it makes its leisurely way towards land or further out to sea. That is, the oil that has escaped BP's clever ruse of applying dispersant at the seabed. On top of that BP has contracted an armada, largely from local fishing communities, of 1,400 vessels and 20,000 people to boom and skim and scoop the oil to keep it from the coastline. Consequently, our TV screens are not depicting mile upon mile of blackened beaches and tens of thousands of oil-covered birds and animals that were such a shocking feature of the Valdez calamity, nor indeed docks brimming with idle fishing boats. As for the total amount of oil flowing into the Gulf of Mexico, Macondo is a long way from the record of 1979's Ixtoc blowout in just fifty metres of water in the Bay of Campeche. It leaked 3.3 million barrels over a nine-month period before finally being capped, having despoiled nearly 3,000 square kilometres over 260 kilometres of mainly Texas coastline, and killed up to 80% of marine life. It is instructive, however, that thanks to rigorous clean-up and nature´s own recovery mechanisms neither the Valdez nor Ixtoc caused lasting damage to the environment. Likewise, we can be sure BP is big and rich enough to fulfil its promise to make good all its mess, eventually. Just as public figures have failed to put perspective on the Macondo blowout, they have displayed similar ignorance concerning the extraordinary technological efforts BP has been applying in reducing the flow until such time as the two relief wells reach their target. BP has been working with up to 20 surface ships in close proximity, each held in position by satellite-centred dynamic positioning, most trailing some kind of piping or electric cabling to control a device at seabottom, ensuring activities are co-ordinated and nothing gets tangled. In the cold, pressurised, lightless, hostile environment 1,522 metres underwater, BP has been using some fourteen unmanned submarines to conduct a series of intricate manoeuvres such as shoving, tugging, manipulating, cutting, grinding, positioning, connecting, observing. But because few understand the engineering that is going on and it cannot be seen, interest in this astounding activity is scant. So the ignorant assumption is that it is all a bit amateurish with silly names like topkill and BOP. But BP has been systematically applying one imaginative potential solution after another, each one carefully thought through with failures and back-ups accounted for in their plans. No organization could be tackling this massive challenge more professionally than BP and every attempt to distract it reduces its chances of success. Nevertheless, BP's highly professional (if unrecognized as such) approach to the problem it has created does stand in stark contrast to the events leading up to it, which indeed are highly questionable. A lot of evidence suggest disgraceful, last-minute, cost-reducing short cuts at the expense of best practice and proper planning. A couple of weeks ago, the day after the US Administration subjected Tony Haywood and BP to a $20 billion “shakedown” (Congressman Joe Barton's word), Mr Haywood appeared before a Congressional Committee on Energy and Commerce to be grilled on primetime TV, ostensibly about these events. Some days earlier it had sent him a fourteen page letter detailing five technical areas where BP had arguably cut corners to save time and thus money on this million-dollars-a-day well. It was superbly crafted, meticulous in its technical detail, leaving very little wriggle-room for Mr Haywood. Yet when it came to the hearing, the search for the truth of what caused the blowout was overwhelmed by the Congressmen's and Congresswomen's overweening desire to demonstrate their toughness. In opening statements lasting over an hour, they one by one expressed their horror, fury and disdain in what felt like a public lynching, yet not the slightest modicum of curiosity. Once the real questioning began, the aggressive tone continued, yet the questions singularly failed to delve into the acute technical issues so adeptly exposed in the letter. In turn this allowed Mr Haywood to repeat his mantra that BP was still investigating, he wasn't a technical expert, action would be taken and other evasions. It was patently clear that the interrogators themselves had not bothered to swot up their subject – or even studied their own letter - and were therefore cautious not to dig too deeply. For example, it was pointless to ask Mr Haywood if, were he on the rig, he would have cancelled the “CBL” (cement bond log, an expensive technique for estimating how effectively pipe has been cemented in place). This simply allowed him to slide away by saying cementing was not his area of expertise. It would have been far more incisive to demand a straight answer to the question implicit in the letter – why did BP cancel the CBL? But a coherent response risked the terrifying prospect of exposing the Congressional interrogators' ignorance, so it was safer to emote and grandstand. This kind of ignorance meant that the Congressional enquiry, for all its cost and distraction, yielded not a single additional piece of useful information beyond what was in its letter. You would think that not just for BP, but for the US Administration and the general public, the most important issue right now is to kill that damn well, make it permanently safe and clean up any damage, and that nothing should be allowed to stand in the way of this and every assistance afforded. Yet the US administration seems to apportion greater priority not to winning this gargantuan battle against nature but to launching enquiries, belligerent “kick ass” blather, criminal investigations. This is the behaviour of ignorance. Once Macondo is solved – and it will be – there will be plenty of years and decades for anger, recrimination, retribution, lawsuits, enquiries, investigations, compensation, fines, prison sentences, sanctions or whatever, and to do it properly. The future is a long time. Meantime, ignorance seems to hold sway.
I love these four econojic truisms that author Gary de Mar recently penned:
These are not concepts that find a ready ear among the left. But you can be sure that Ronald Reagan and his soulmate Margaret Thatcher would have enjoyed and endorsed them.
Issue 207’s Comments to Cyberspace
Quote: “You have no f**king soul ... And my soul is screaming because you don’t have one to join mine. You have no f**king soul. You can’t give a f**k. I left my wife because we had no spiritual common ground. You and I have none, zero. You won’t even f**king try.”
Mel Gibson, divorced, fervid
Catholic, Jew-hating Quote [not online]: “She was only a whisky maker, but he loved her still.” Ginger Meggs, Australian cartoon character Hat-tip: Graham in Perth (Oz) Quote: “Radical leaders prey on the fearful and naive.” [added July 16th]
Billboard by the North Iowa Tea Party.
They were later prevailed upon (I wonder buy
whom?) to remove it Quote: “Dutch researcher Sara Kinsbergen caused some amusement when she categorised the different types of non-governmental organisations flooding the developing world into
Columnist Sarah Carey, commenting on a recent
conference There's a whole new vocabulary we need to learn. Quote: “I do leave my religion behind me and I genuinely mean that. While we all have our beliefs and our own religions, I don’t think it should cloud our judgment.” [Added July 12th]
The clownish Dermot Ahern,
He has just forced through a Civil Partnership
bill
Either Mr Ahern believes in his Roman Catholic
religion,
or he doesn't, in which case he is a
disgraceful hypocrite Either way he is a man without a true moral compass.
He really should have stuck to his canoeing,
Quote: “We cannot live with a nuclear Iran. I am willing to absorb what takes place [in the event of use of the military option] at the expense of the security of the UAE.” [Added July 7th]
Yousef al-Otaiba, United Arab Emirates
ambassador to the United States,
John Bolton, America's pugnacious ambassador
to the UN under George W Bush
Since we know President Obama won't upset his
Iranian dictator friends, Quote: “I am convinced that his honour would have ruled differently had he been sitting in the Sderot youth cultural centre, rather than on Brighton's sunny shores.” Ron Prosor, Israel's ambassador to the UK, makes a caustic observation when Judge George Bathurst-Norman tells a jury in Brighton that life for Gazans is “hell on earth”.
As a result, vandals who wilfully
caused Ł180,000-worth of damage
Update (3rd July) Quote: “An American envoy is scheduled to meet with Hamas representatives in an Arab country and hand them a letter from the Obama Administration.”
Roee Nahmias, a journalist with
Israel News, Is it true? Quote: “World sees Obama as incompetent and amateur.” Headline in US News & World Report to a column by Martin Zuckerman. For some of us [ahem], this has been obvious since the Primaries in 2008 Quote: “The educational system in America is designed by Whites to mis-educate Blacks not by benign neglect but by malignant intent. The civil-rights movement was never about racial equality. Instead, It was always about becoming White ... to master what [they] do.”
The ever reliable Rev Jeremiah Wright,
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ISSUE #206 - June 2010 [506+826=1331]
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Attitudes Towards Gaza “Humanitarian” “Aid” Flotilla - 13 June 2010 Millions of words have been written across the world about the recent flotilla which set sail to deliver “humanitarian” “aid” to the people of Gaza, so my addition here will be brief. Those two words in the heading have been put between ears for four reasons.
Mark Humphrys has put out a great summary of the whole flotilla saga. I have restricted myself to a little analysis of the letters pages of just one Irish newspaper, the Irish Times, which has hosted a lively discussion on the subject. I simply totted up the score of anti-Israel and pro-Israel letters over the period Tuesday 1st June 2010 to Saturday 12th. Here's the result.
There was a total of 79 such letters, of which 70% roundly castigated Israel, 24% expressed support or understanding for Israel's dilemma, while 6% were neutral. It is my guess that, sadly, this three-to-one ratio probably mirrors
These could of course be false or distorted conclusions because the Antis are undoubtedly more vocal than the Pros, in Ireland as in the rest of the world. But as far as Irish politicians are concerned it is distorted in the other direction. Of 226 parliamentarians, only one, Alan Shatter, consistently speaks up for Israel. He is also the sole Jew. The others, from ministers down, thoroughly enjoy denouncing the Jewish state.
Columnist Charles Krauthammer recently made a very depressing observation [than Hitler's].” Sadly, if reaction to the flotilla is anything to go by, this has the ring of truth.
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Fisked - The Economists' Appalling Anti-Israel Cover Story - 10th June 2010 I am an avid Economist subscriber, have been for decades. But I have just read, albeit a little late, the latest cover story of the 3rd June edition, and find its anti-Israel tone and so-called remedies appalling. In effect it seems to be advocating, at best, the capitulation of Israel to the foes that surround it. Here is the article, which I have Fisked. My comments in indented red italics. See if you agree with me.
The government’s macho attitude is actually making Israel weaker Jun 3rd 2010 THE lethal mishandling of Israel’s attack on a ship carrying humanitarian supplies that was trying to break the blockade of Gaza was bound to provoke outrage—and rightly so. Rightly so? That is your (prejudiced) judgement. Wrongly so would be more objective. The circumstances of the raid are murky and may well remain that way despite an inquiry (see article). But the impression received yet again by the watching world is that Israel resorts to violence too readily. Too readily? You seem to endorse this view. Yet the violence was begun by the jihadis on the Marmara who beat each Israeli soldier on roughly a four-to-one basis, with sticks and perhaps knives, as they rapelled singly down from their helicopter. Is there no stage at which it is considered legitimate for the Israeli soldiers to defend themselves? More worryingly for Israel, the episode is accelerating a slide towards its own isolation. It is the attacks of neighbours and the world generally which is isolating Israel. It would be no less isolated were it not to defend itself as you seem to advocate. Once admired as a plucky David facing down an array of Arab Goliaths which it is still doing, Israel is now seen as the clumsy bully on the block. Clumsy perhaps, but it is weird to call the bully the smallest guy in the neighbourhood, outnumbered as Israel is
Israel’s desire to stop the flotilla reaching Gaza was understandable, given its determination to maintain the blockade. Yet the Israelis also had a responsibility to conduct the operation safely. And safely is exactly how the Israelis conducted their interception on all boats but the Marmara where they were attacked by jihadis. “Safely” cannot mean that the Israeli soldiers should submit to their own lynching. The campaigners knew that either way they would win. If they had got through, it would have been a triumphant breaching of the blockade. If forcibly stopped, with their cargo of medical equipment and humanitarian aid, they would be portrayed as victims—even if some, as the Israelis contend, and the video and still photographs demonstrate beyond all reasonable doubt brought clubs, knives and poles. As it was, disastrous planning by Israel’s soldiers led to a needless loss of life. Agreed. Had the Israelis been prepared for battle rather than crowd-control, there would probably have been fewer casualties but just as great an outcry. For anyone who cares about Israel, this tragedy should be the starting point for deeper questions—about the blockade, about the Jewish state’s increasing loneliness and the route to peace. A policy of trying to imprison the Palestinians has left their jailer strangely besieged. Surrounded by hostile Islamic states bent on the destruction of Israel and the annihilation of its Jews, Israel is indeed besieged, and not “strangely”. Losing friends, strengthening Hamas The blockade of Gaza is cruel and has failed. Not very cruel – the Gazans can get everything they need, food, water, fuel, medicines, and even luxury restaurants and hotels. And not a failure, because Hamas has been unable to import weapons of the efficacy and in the quantities that they desire. The Gazans have suffered sorely but have not been starved into submission. Hard to be starved when you’re not short of food. Hamas has not been throttled and overthrown, as Israeli governments (and many others) have wished. Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier taken hostage, has not been freed. Both true. Weapons and missiles can still be smuggled in through tunnels from Egypt. But not the heavy artillery they want and Iran and Syria want to supply. Nevertheless, to stop the other stuff, Egypt is building a steel subterranean wall to put a stop to the tunnelling. (Notice how no-one criticises the Egyptian blockade of Gaza?) Just as bad, from Israel’s point of view, it helps feed antipathy towards Israel, not just in the Arab and Muslim worlds, but in Europe too. Israel once had warm relations with a ring of non-Arab countries in the vicinity, including Iran and Turkey. The deterioration of Israel’s relations with Turkey, whose citizens were among the nine dead, is depriving Israel of a rare Muslim ally and mediator.
These trends towards Islam have nothing to do with Israel but fully explain Turkey’s and Iran’s growing Jew-hatred. It is startling how, in its bungled effort to isolate Gaza, democratic Israel has come off worse than Hamas, which used to send suicide-bombers into restaurants. Agree. Startling how much of the world draws such a conclusion. Most telling of all are the stirrings of disquiet in America, Israel’s most steadfast ally. Americans are still vastly more sympathetic to the Israelis than to the Palestinians. But a growing number, especially Democrats, including many liberal Jews, Ah yes, Stalin’s “useful idiots”! are getting queasier about what they see as America’s too robotic support for Israel, especially when its government is as hawkish as Binyamin Netanyahu’s. Israel is the Middle East’s only mature democracy. That is why it is constantly changing government from accommodationist to hawkish and back again (no fewer than eight such “regime changes” since 1983), always trying to find different avenues towards making peace with Palestinians who don’t want it. When Netanyahu’s current “hawkish” approach fails no doubt Israel’s electorate will once again change tack in its never-ending search. A gap in sympathy for Israel has widened between Democrats and Republicans. Partly a result of the Democrats’ love-affair with Mr Obama and his twenty years of Jew-hating indoctrination in the Rev Jeremiah Wright’s church. Conservatives still tend to back Israel through hell and the high seas. Barack Obama is more conscious that the Palestinians’ failure to get a state is helping to spread anti-American poison across the Muslim world, making it harder for him to deal with Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan. His generals have strenuously made that point. None other than the head of Israel’s Mossad, its foreign intelligence service, declared this week that America has begun to see Israel more as a burden than an asset. I doubt the head of Mossad was making a case for surrender, just a sad observation. That has led to the charge by hawkish American Republicans, as well as many Israelis, that Mr Obama is bent on betraying Israel. In fact, he is motivated by a harder-nosed appreciation of the pros and cons of America’s cosiness with Israel, and is thus all the keener to prod the Jewish state towards giving the Palestinians a fair deal. I wonder how you know what Mr Obama’s “motivation” is? The only people needing prodding to make “a fair deal” are the Palestinians to make peace, of which the outlines have long been on the table (eg Bill Clinton, 2000). He has condemned the building of Jewish settlements on Palestinian territory more bluntly than his predecessors did, because he rightly thinks they make it harder to negotiate a peace deal. Rightly? That’s your judgement. The real – and only – blockage to peace is the Palestinians’ own steadfast refusal to recognize the right to exist of Israel and its Jews, without which no peace agreement will ever be possible. Mr Obama’s greater sternness towards Israel is for the general good — including Israel’s. This is a bland statement unencumbered by foundation. Its underlying premise is Jewish surrender. Harmony is not just a dream Israel is caught in a vicious circle. The more its hawks think the outside world will always hate it, the more it tends to shoot opponents first when they attack it (eg the Marmara) and ask questions later, and the more it finds that the world is indeed full of enemies. Though Mr Netanyahu has reluctantly agreed to freeze settlement-building and is negotiating indirectly with Palestinians, he does not give the impression of being willing to give ground in the interests of peace. He has publicly stated his willingness to make a two-state agreement and the necessary conditions. As usual, neither Palestinians nor the wider Arab and Muslim world have shown the slightest interest in following this up. Destruction of Israel is clearly still more important for them than peace. Yet the prospect of a deal between Palestinians and Israelis still beckons. The contours of a two-state solution remain crystal-clear: an adjusted border, with Israel keeping some of the biggest settlements while Palestine gets equal swaps of land; Jerusalem shared as a capital, with special provisions for the holy places; and an admission by Palestinians that they cannot return to their old homes in what became Israel in 1948, with some theoretical right of return acknowledged by Israel and a small number of refugees let back without threatening the demographic preponderance of Jewish Israelis. This is largely what Ehud Barak offered Yasser Arafat in 2000 under the auspices of Bill Clinton. Arafat’s response was to say no, to make no counter-offer and to return to the West Bank and start the Second Intifada. Your paragraph should be directed to the Palestinians not to the Israelis, who more or less already agree with it. And what about Hamas, if Israel is to lift the siege of Gaza? How should Israel handle an authoritarian movement that refuses to recognise it and has in the past readily used terror? One answer is to ask the UN to oversee the flow of goods and people going in and out of Gaza. That is hardly a cure-all, An understatement. The UN has become so rabidly anti-Jew, led by such toxic sub-bodies as the Organization of the Islamic Conference and the UN Human Rights Council, that it can never be relied on to police the flow of weapons into Gaza and bombers and fighters out of it. This would be tantamount to an Israeli capitulation. but Hamas would become the world’s problem neighbour, not just Israel’s. And who cares? Just look, for example, at the Hamas (and Hezbullah) flags and symbols in anti-Israel rallies across Europe, as well as the “humanitarian” “aid” flotilla. And when even Gays and Lesbians align themselves with the homosexual-executing fascists of Hamas – as they do – it is clear that few are worried about Hamas so long as Jews are their target. The Arab world must do more, pressing Hamas to disavow violence, publicly pledge not to resume the firing of rockets at Israeli civilians and revoke its anti-Semitic charter. Yes The West, led by Mr Obama, should call for Hamas to be drawn into negotiations, both with its rival Palestinians on the West Bank as well as with Israel, even if it does not immediately recognise the Jewish state. And what, exactly, will the Jewish state talk about when Hamas’s primary objective remains its obliteration? The IRA is sometimes used as an example of negotiating with terrorists. But this happened only when the IRA had been militarily defeated and was at a standstill. Hamas are a long way from that happy condition. It is still the party the Palestinians elected in 2006 to represent all of them. None of this will be easy. But the present stalemate is bloodily leading nowhere. Your “solution” would accelerate the disappearance of Israel and its people. Israel is a regional hub of science, business and culture. Despite its harsh treatment of Palestinians behaviour has consequences in the land it occupies, it remains a vibrant democracy. But its loneliness, partly self-inflicted, is making it a worse place, not just for the Palestinians but also for its own people. If only it can replenish its stock of idealism and common sense before it is too late. Why do you persist in placing the whole onus on Israel? Why not call for Palestinians, Arabs and Muslims to “replenish their stock of idealism and common sense before it is too late”? They are the only ones determined to continue with war.
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BP's Brilliant Management of its Blowout - 7th June 2010 When it comes to BP's Macondo blowout in the Gulf of Mexico, no matter which side different media outlets may dress - left, right or centre - there are all playing pretty much the same game, or at least reading the same script. Yet it is a script of abject Ignorance at all public levels, reaching from the highest echelons of the US Administration, to the prestige newspapers of the world, to TV and radio and down to the man-in-the-street. But it is worse than ignorance because it is accompanied by completely unfounded confidence in what is being expressed. The basic problem is, as I alluded to in my previous post, that outside the small circle of engineering-oriented people (of whom I am one) who already understand the intricacies, technologies and limitations of drilling deep, hot, high pressure wells in very deep waters, no-one can visualise what is going on. There is nothing to see but a collection of vessels floating on the surface and a large oil slick, or perhaps sheen, on the surface of the sea, plus some blurry video footage of oil spewing at the seabed. So let's go through some of the ridiculous assertions that are being made. Start with the beginning. The drilling rig Deepwater Horizon did not “explode”. An explosion occurred, followed by a fire and the rig sank. The explosion took place because BP lost control of the well, allowing high pressure gas to force its way up the well and into the rig area where it ignited, probably due to a random spark somewhere. Oil is not leaking from the rig at the bottom of the sea (other than maybe from its fuel tanks), it is flowing from the well. Moreover, the situation is not what White House energy adviser (and top environmental adviser) Carol Browner would have you believe. (Her ignorant remarks largely explain why Irish bookie Paddy Power are giving 16-1 odds that she will shortly resign).
We know how much oil spilled from the Exxon Valdez - its 250,000 barrel capacity. Furthermore, it was a thick crude and it was spilled close to shore. Therefore it exacted the maximum environmental damage imaginable on the wildlife and scenery of the Prince William Sound area. As regards Macondo, no-one has the faintest idea how much oil is spilling, other than “a lot”. That is because there is no way of actually measuring the flow. All the estimates are based on the same thing: technologists' guesses by eyeballing black emission from the leaks as portrayed by underwater TV. And even the eyeballing is based on what measured flows look like on surface, yet who knows whether 5,000 barrels a day flowing from a pipe on surface looks the same as 5,000 bbl/day viewed on TV in 1500 metres of water? That's why guesstimates vary between 5,000 and 80,000 bbl/day. Yet the important thing is not so much the quantity of escaping oil but the damage it causes, and for Macondo there are several other mitigating factors. One of BP's many brilliant innovations in this catastrophic saga is the injection of dispersant at the sea bottom, which reduces the amount of crude that reaches the surface. The crude itself is comparatively light (85% of the density of water) compared to the more syrupy crude on the Exxon Valdez (84%). The difference is significant because lighter crude is easier to refine which makes it some $5/bbl more valuable. It also means that much of the Macondo oil is evaporating in the balmy Gulf of Mexico weather, which is why the slicks are so relatively thin compared with those of the Exxon Valdez. Moreover, the Exxon Valdez ran aground on Bligh Reef which is just four kilometres from Bligh Island and 15 km from mainland Alaska, whereas Macondo is 80 km from the nearest landfall. So there is plenty of
This too explains why the Macondo slicks bear no comparison with those of the Exxon Valdez. But here is the clincher. How many TV and newspaper pictures have you seen of birds and animals clogged with oil? How many beaches turned black with the dreaded sludge of crude? The answer is very few, because there is very little actual environmental damage, at least so far. A week ago the Sunday Times included a graphic in the print edition claiming there were 444 dead birds, 200 dead turtles and 19 dead dolphins; seven days later the bird count had soared to ... 600 damaged. Look, I am sorry if one of those dead or damaged birds is your auntie, but these numbers are derisory. Every day in the USA, domestic cats alone kill over half a million wild birds. The only living things that look polluted are protestors who have poured black paint over themselves.
President Obama flew to Louisiana to look at environmental damage and all he could find was this pristine beach. If there was an oil-clogged one, do you think he would not have wanted to be photographed there to show his concern if not his (manufactured) “enragement”?
Another big reason is the 1,400 vessels and 20,000 people that BP has engaged to lay booms to contain surface oil, skim and scoop it up, keep it from the coastline and to clean up beaches and wildlife where oil is found. Where has it sourced this armada and army? In a pretty clever PR strategy, they are mostly local fishermen and others, who are apparently now making more money from BP than they would in their usual pursuits, which explains why there have been so few of them protesting. For example, there's a class-action lawsuit against BP on behalf of Louisiana shrimpers being worked up by ... just two shrimpers - hardly a mass movement. So that's most of the environmental nonsense put to bed. It's not to say that there won't be serious damage in the future, but it certainly has not remotely happened so far. Then there is BP's response. In my previous post, I made it pretty clear that there were serious shortcomings in the way the well was drilled and perhaps in the BP cost-cutting culture which might have fostered them. However, my reservations there have been completely blown away by the thoroughness and professionalism of what it's being doing ever since, not to mention it's money-no-object mentality. It rapidly built up a huge team of experts, not just from within BP but from its contractors and even its competitors to develop solutions to the unprecedented problem it faces. While there are many techniques for dealing with a wild well such as Macondo, which are throroughly proven on land or shallow water, they have never been attempted in deep water, where currents across the 1,500 metre water depth are unpredictable and different, while on bottom there is no light, the temperature is close to freezing, the ambient pressure is some 160 atmospheres and no human diver can survive. Every activity must therefore be conducted by remote control. BP broke its workforce into teams that systematically developed an array of different options for controlling the well. These ranged from trying to lessen the flow by poking pipes into pipes to draw off some of the oil, to commencing two relief wells which will each cost about $100 million. Over twenty vessels have at times been active on the surface in the vicinity of the well at the same time, most with pipes or wires running into the water. The water depth is too deep to anchor, so each of them is dynamically positioned, meaning that computer-controlled thrusters keep them on station using GPS, which in itself is a pretty sophisticated technology.
For example, each of 14 ROVs (remote operated vehicles, ie unmanned submarines) is controlled by a tether connecting it to surface. A specific team - perhaps with an air-traffic control background - is therefore allocated merely to manage the positions of the surface vessels and to ensure that submarine cables and pipes don't get tangled with each other. As each technique has been tried and failed, the next technique has been brought into play. Here are a the main ones.
You would think that not just for BP but for the US Administration and the general public the most important issue right now is to kill that damn well, make it permanently safe and clean up any damage, and that nothing should be allowed to stand in the way of this. Yet solving Macondo seems not to be in the forefront of the priorities of the President and his cohorts. They have launched both a Congressional enquiry and criminal investigation in respect of the blowout, meanwhile coming out with meaningless blather like keeping the boot on BP's neck and being enraged. There will be plenty of years and decades for anger, recrimination, retribution, lawsuits, enquiries, investigations, compensation, fines, prison sentences, sanctions or whatever once the well is safe. The future is a long time.
But launching such processes now in the midst of this gargantuan battle against nature means that to defend itself BP is forced deploy its most senior managers and hire umpteen lawyers. And who will brief those managers and lawyers? Why the top technologists that BP can muster. The very men and women who should be devoting all their expertise and energy to solving the problem. You could hardly do more to damage America's interests. There seems no limit to the ignorance if not malice of the Obama administration.
Issue 206’s Comments to Cyberspace While I've been lazy in recent weeks about blogging, I have still been harrassing innocent publishers with my witterings online.
- - - - - I R E L A N D - - - - - 15th June - Quote and here and here: “Don't stand here and say you represent Iranian people ... I don't want to be attacked by these fucking murderers ...Murderer! ... Why did you murder political prisoners? ... Do not touch me. You can't touch me ... What the f**k is going on here? ... Down with the Islamic regime of Iran.” A little bit of Iranian thug politics comes to Ireland.
Shaho Zamani, an
Iranian Kurd seeking asylum in Ireland, shouts his protests
The Minister's own security thugs (believed to be armed) 14th June - Quote: “The Irish Times ... is ... quite a dangerous paper.”
Irish Minister of State
Martin Mansergh of the ruling Fianna Fail party No greater compliment can a government minister pay a newspaper. - - - - N E T H E R L A N D S - - - - - 10th June - Quote: “More security, less crime, less immigration, less Islam -- that is what the Netherlands has chosen.”
Gert Wilders, head of the
Party for Freedom,
This makes his party the
third biggest - - - - - U K - - - - - 10th June - Quote: “I think that the best thing now is not ... to attempt to damage the reputation of a great British company ... but to sort out [the problem].”
Boris Johnson,
Conservative mayor of London, responds to Quote: “Follow the Islamic way to save the world.”
The thoroughly nutty
Prince of Wales,
No wonder the 84-year-old
Queen won't step down and hand over to him. Quote: “Dear Chief Secretary, I’m afraid to tell you there’s no money left.”
Liam Byrne, Labour's outgoing
Chief Secretary to the Treasury,
It it rare
indeed you get a truthful statement from a Minister,
Unfortunately,
pretty soon afterwards - - - - - I S R A E L - - - - - Quote: “Remember Khaibar, Khaibar, oh Jews! The army of Mohammed will return!”
Activists get themselves in the mood to greet,
The Marmara is a Turkish vessel which was
attempting to carry
The battle-cry commemorates Mohammed's' Quote: “Shut up, go back to Auschwitz!... We're helping Arabs go against the US. Don't forget 9/11 guys.”
Turkish ship the Mavi Marmara, part of the Gaza
“aid” flotilla,
When boarded by Israeli commandos, persons
aboard the Marmara Quote: “This mission is not about delivering humanitarian supplies, it's about breaking Israel's siege on 1.5 million Palestinians.”
Greta Berlin, one of the organizers of the Quote: “Peace could be achieved in no more than a week if Israel is willing ... Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his ministers must understand that peace is in [Israel’s] interest”.
Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas is absolutely right,
It is he and his fellow-Palestinians who must be “willing” -
As George Bush famously
whispered to Tony Blair, In other words, stop attacking Israel and a peace accord will quickly follow.
Israel has demonstrated time and again its willingness to make
peace. - - - - - R U S S I A - - - - - Quote: “Russia is guided by its own long-term state interests ... Those who speak on behalf of the friendly Iranian people must remember this ... Any unpredictability, any political extremism ... is unacceptable for Russia.”
Sergei Prikhodko, a senior diplomat in the Kremlin,
I hate to praise an autrocracy such as Russia, Hat tip: Jawa Report - - - - - U S A - - - - - 13th June - Quote: “[I, Barack Obama am] still a Muslim, the son of a Muslim father, the stepson of Muslim stepfather ... [my] half brothers in Kenya are Muslims, and ... [I am] that he was sympathetic towards the Muslim agenda.”
President Obama confides
in
Egyptian Foreign Minister
Ahmed Aboul Ghei
It serves as a reminder of a
curious statement he made
See how long it
takes the mainstream media to pick up this little gem.
The president's admission
is rather disappointing. But it seems I had formed too high an opinion of him (hard to do). Hat tip: Tom Carew Quote: “We're going to keep the boot on the neck of BP.”
Ken Salazar, America's Interior
Secretary,
It should be devoting all its energy to supporting BP
There will be plenty of time for recriminations, Quote: “it is almost at the level of sedition.”
Governor Deval Patrick of Massachusetts Quote: “Obviously the loss of Daniel Pearl was one of those moments that captured the world’s imagination because it reminded us of how valuable a free press is”
With this fatuous clause, Barack Obama pays
“tribute”
Surrounded by still grieving relatives of Mr
Pearl, the American Jew journalist Mark Steyn rightly eviscerates the president. Quote: “What they are doing ... They're sticking our kids with the bill. And that's immoral. That's generational theft.”
Sarah Palin is referring
to mounting debt and government programs.
Heaping enormous debt onto a nations' Quote (Minute 4:20): “It's racial harassment if we say it's racial harassment. Don't bother us with the facts.”
Todd Tucker, author of
Mr Tucker is referring to a kangaroo court of
the - wait for it -
It had convicted one of its
The book's cover features burning crosses
The IUPUI president eventually apologised for
the injustice to Mr Sampson - - - - - K O R E A s - - - - - Quote: “This was an unacceptable provocation by North Korea ... the international community has a responsibility and a duty to respond.” US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton says the right thing for once.
It is of course empty rhetoric because - - - - - er, F R A N C E - - - - - Quote: “We must know what to tell them in case we get in bed with them, right.”
Carla Bruni, aka as Mrs Nicolas Sarkozy,
So now we know what the French president
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ISSUE #205 - 16th May 2010 [423+890=1313]
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Most of the media coverage about BP’s disastrous well in the Gulf of Mexico has concentrated on the oil slick, the potential damage it can do, the measures being taken to contain it and efforts underway to stem the underwater leaks. All of this is visible on the surface and easily grasped. Conversely, the events which led to the catastrophe were of a technical nature, out of sight at depths of thousands of metres, and poorly understood outside the industry. Last February, the floating rig “Deepwater Horizon” (Oilonline photo), under contract to BP on behalf of itself (65%) and its partners Anadarko (25%) and Mitsui (10%), moved into Mississippi Canyon Block 252 to drill exploration well Macondo at a water depth of 1,522 metres eighty kilometres from shore.
Built in Korea in 2001 for $350 million, Drilling Horizon was an 8,000-ton state-of-the-art behemoth, known as a semisubmersible because it sat on two huge floats submerged well below wave action in order to minimise movement. Designed for 2,400 metres of water, far too deep for anchors, it kept station by means of satellite positioning and computer-controlled multi-directional thrusters; in other words it would motor at full speed to go nowhere. BP paid its owner-operator TransOcean, the world’s biggest offshore drilling contractor, a day-rate of $500,000, which the ancillary activities (helicopters, boats, fuel, specialist services etc) doubled to a cool daily million. By April, the rig had drilled Macondo to its 5,500 metres objective where, to great joy, high-pressure oil and gas were found. The next step was to disconnect from the well with a view to reconnecting later when production facilities were ready. Wells are drilled using rotating pipes which circulate a heavy “mud” to cool the drillbit, control pressures, plaster the bore and remove drill-cuttings. Drilling mud is in fact a highly technical, sophisticated and expensive cocktails of chemicals).
As the well progresses, a succession of concentric tubes, known as
casing, is lowered into the hole, with cement pumped into the annulus
between it and the hole to seal off upper layers. This allows the next
section to be drilled at a smaller diameter, also to be subsequently
sealed off with a narrower casing, and so on, telescope fashion. The
annuli of the concentric casings are further sealed mechanically at the
surface in a wellhead device.
During drilling a BOP (blowout preventer) is always secured to the wellhead to control unwanted influx from the well. Weighing 200 tons and standing 12 metres high, it comprises up to six hydraulic valves which, to shut off the well, can clamp around – and if necessary slice apart – any pipe sticking through it out of the wellbore. Typically, with the annulus sealed off in this way, heavier mud would be pumped into the well to overcome the pressure beneath the BOPs until they could be safely opened and normal operations resumed. This is a skilled task and like airline pilots, drilling supervisors are regularly re-certified to ensure they master the physics and the practice. In deep water, the BOP, activated from surface, sits on the wellhead on the seabed. The floating rig far above connects to the BOP by a 50-centimetre diameter so-called riser, which provides access to the well. On Macondo, the final 12-centimetre diameter casing was installed stretching from seabed down to 5,500 metres, cemented through a non-return valve at the bottom and up the annulus, and hung off in the wellhead. This would leave the well ready for another rig to re-connect later. On April 20th, once the cement was set, the BOP was closed to pressure-test the cement, the casing, the wellhead and indeed the BOP itself. This is done by pumping mud from surface down a separate pipeline parallel to the riser to below the BOP. Only two steps remained before disconnection: to pump another wodge of cement into the well to provide a plug as an additional safety barrier against untoward pressure from below (it is unclear whether this was done) and to replace the heavy mud in the riser with seawater so that its imminent removal would not cause pollution by mud. Once full of seawater, the 1˝ kilometre long riser exerted 200 atmospheres less pressure on the top of the well than when full of mud. When the BOP was opened, the reduced pressure proved insufficient to prevent an enormous bubble of high pressure gas that had inexplicably accumulated, from bursting into the riser expelling the huge column of seawater out of the riser and seventy metres into the air. This of course lowered the pressure in the riser even further which sucked in ever greater quantities of first gas then oil from the newly-discovered reservoir over five kilometres down. With no wind to disperse it in that calm night, the gas quickly spread across the rig until inevitably a spark somewhere ignited it. A huge fireball ensued and though the majority on board managed to evacuate, eleven men sadly lost their lives. Fuelled by gas and oil, the conflagration raged for 36 hours until the rig sank. In the immediate chaos no-one could get to the control panel to close the BOP. The riser and control lines in due course broke free of the rig and fell haphazardly onto the seabed where it continues to spew the oil that is causing such environmental alarm. BP’s efforts are now focussed on using unmanned submarines to try and close the BOP, funnelling the oil into a cofferdam, containing the slicks on the surface and drilling a relief well to intersect Macondo at reservoir level. How had gas built up in the wellbore in an apparently sealed casing?
These are big questions to which only a formal enquiry will provide definitive answers. Personally, I would be surprised if the answers to any of those questions will reflect favourably on BP. There is another issue raised in a Sunday Times article by Tom Bower, which notes that BP have suffered no fewer than four other disasters in the past five years -
Mr Bower, author of “The Squeeze: Oil, Money and Greed in the 21st Century”, argues that a culture of cost-cutting pervaded BP which probably contributed to its five catastrophes in five years. This line of thinking could suggest that technical requirements and hence safety considerations sometimes took second place. In this vein, it seems plausible that, among other things, BP denuded themselves of much deepwater high-pressure expertise they now desperately require, by laying off a cadre of highly paid employees with vast deepwater high-pressure experience and specialist skills. It is my guess that they would have numerically replaced these experts with bright young PhDs on a fast-track to development which entailed much fore-shortened hands-on experience compared to the old-timers, together with excessive reliance on contractors whose skills and interest (rightly) lie in their equipment not the actual hole. In the oil and gas business it is always the oil company and none other which is responsible for the hole. Eleven men died and disastrous oil pollution is unfolding because control was lost of the Macondo hole.
The Irish Government, in order to save the country's banking system, is bending over backward to spend billions upon billions of taxpayers' money, whose repayment will extend to future generation upon future generation. Without a functioning banking system, all commerce will apparently cease. Or something. A state-owned National Assets Management Agency, NAMA, has been set up to buy the banks' bad debts, the vast majority property-related, so that the banks can resume normal banking. It is buying the debts at a discount of between 30% and 50%, though the actual housing crash well exceeds 50% everywhere. In other words NAMA is overpaying. The reason given is that otherwise the state will have to pour even more taxpayer billions into the banks to recapitalise them. The process has now begun and already the state is doing both anyway - NAMA is overpaying for the debts AND the government is pouring extra money into the banks. The question that the government has never, as far as I am aware, answered is what is the practical effect of not taking such measures. What does a banking system failure and economic collapse mean for ordinary citizens? For the past year or more, it has been borrowing €400 million a week just to pay ongoing costs. Yes, notwithstanding the evidently bankrupt state of the finances, and last December's “slash-and-burn” budget that trimmed €4 billion pa from government spending, borrowing is still continuing apace. So presumably with economic collapse, the lenders (who are they anyway? the Chinese?) will stop lending, there will be insufficient money to pay civil servants, dole, pensions, schools, hospitals etc. So state employees, perhaps a hundred thousand or more, will be thrown out of work and all state payouts will be drastically cut. Riots and civil unrest will surely ensue, following the example of our Greek brethren. But that will not be the half of it. If (When?) the ever-wobbling Irish banks collapse, they will take with them all or most of their deposits, because we know these don't exist anymore because they have already been disbursed on those property loans that are now being sold off at a discount to NAMA. Of course the Government has guaranteed those bank deposits. But it has no money either - that's why it's borrowing that €400 million weekly to stay(weakly) afloat. The idea of the guarantee, therefore, is to provide sufficient confidence such that depositors do not in fact demand their money; it does not however mean your money is safe should a large number of people choose to call it in. Therefore, once people get a whiff of the failure of any one the Irish banks (undoubtedly Angli-Irish will be first - see below) , they will stampede their way to their respective banks to withdraw their savings, and only those few at the heard of the queue will get lucky before the money runs out. If you think newly redundant civil servants and pension-less pensioners can cause trouble, wait till you see what happens when the vast majority of the population of all ages realises that its life savings have been vaporised. Anglo-Irish Bank All the Irish banks are currently struggling to remain alive on the edge of a precipice. But Anglo-Irish bank, which lost over €10 billion in 2009 and is on life support thanks to taxpayers' billions, is the zombiest of them all. Back in December 2008 we were told that it would get one billion €uro from the taxpayers to help it survive, which horrified everyone. But another €2.4 bn went into the Anglo-Irish pot over the following months, while last March the taxpayers were forced to toss a further €8.7 bn, bringing the bail-out total to €12 bn. In defence, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan says that “finding a long-term solution for Anglo-Irish Bank is by far the biggest challenge in resolving the banking crisis”. This latest tranche brought the total bail-out money for all Irish banks to an eye-watering €73 bn, or €17,678 per head of population, from infant to geriatric. How will they ever pay this in their lifetimes? The bailout to Anglo-Irish could even swell further - from the current €12 bn to €22 bn according to Mr Lenihan, who in almost the same breath makes a case for winding it down - but only over a period of twenty years. An immediate liquidation would apparently cost the taxpayer €70 bn altogether, but the way the bailouts are escalating I wouldn't rule that option out either. Now consider this. Anglo-Irish, the penniless zombie bank, currently holds (if that's the right term) €27 billion in customer deposits. How safe do you think this money really is?
Get out now! Therefore, and this is the point of this post, why wait until a banking Armageddon scenario unfolds? In a globalised world, what earthly benefit is there is keeping your savings in a banking system on the brink of collapse? As well as foreign banks within Ireland, there are plenty of reasonably robust non-Irish banks outside the country in which money can be held and normal banking services conducted, albeit with a bit of inconvenience. My advice, dear readers, is to do what I have done. Remove all you can from not just Anglo-Irish (of course), but all Irish banks. Move it to other banks in other countries. Store it under the bed. Buy gold. It doesn't matter. Just put it out of reach of an Irish banking collapse. With miserable interest rates for savers everywhere, there is almost no downside that I can think of. The Greeks, in an even worse economic situation than the Irish, are beginning to do just this. They are shifting billions of €uros into foreign banks within Greece such as HSBC and Société Generale and into foreign jurisdictions including Switzerland, the UK and Cyprus. The canny Irish should do likewise now, before others get the same idea as they surely at some stage will. The Irish banking system, like the Greeks', is in effect a giant Ponzi scheme and only the early quitters will get out alive. Be one of them. Form I have form. Back in July 2006, in a post entitled “Ireland's About-to-Crash Housing Boom”, I gave detailed reasons why the Irish housing market boom was unsustainable and that a crash was imminent - I predicted this would commence at the end of that year. In fact it began just three months beyond that, in March 2007. What I said then in respect of the teetering housing market holds true for the probable run on the currently teetering Irish banks.
I am already out.
Truthful Terrorists; Lying Democrats
So said US Attorney General Eric Holder last week when he admitted that the Taliban were behind the attempted car-bombing in Times Square. Initially, of course, the official line, on the basis of little or no evidence, was that the perpetrator was a “white male”, a “lone wolf”, “a little bit strange”, an objector to Obamacare, a man unhappy because his finance company was “foreclosing on [his] property” and similar preposterous nonsense. But not a word about jihad. One reason the suspect, Faisal Shahzad, a Pakistani with naturalised US citizenship, couldn't pay his mortgage was that he had recently spent from five unremunerated months in Pakistan - doing what? - go on, guess. Something to do with training camps perhaps? Actually, he's already admitted to having received bomb-making training in a Taliban and al Qaeda stronghold in Pakistan. Within days of the bombing attempt the Taliban in Pakistan put out at least two videos claiming responsibility, yet the New York police dismissed all that saying there was “no evidence” that the videos were authentic as if their own statements were backed by any. Taqiyya, which permits Muslims to lie to infidels is a central feature of Islam. Yet if there is one lesson we should have learnt in these past nine years since 9-11, it is that when Islamic terrorists say they have done something bad, they are nearly always telling the truth, taqiyya or no taqiyya. I have written before that
Politicians in western democracies often seem to live in a world of such public mendacity and dissimulation that they cannot conceive of the idea that their enemies, in contrast to themselves, might for once not be speaking with forked tongues, especially when they are claiming responsibility for atrocities or threatening them. So when an Islamic terrorist organization such as Al Qaeda or the Taliban claims it was behind Christmas Day's “isolated extremist” panty-bomber or the Times Square “lone wolf” car-bomber, the CIA should have immediately used this as hard evidence, not fluff around wasting valuable investigation time and energy with fantasy unsubstantiated stories about mythical right-wing white nutjobs.
As is customary at major festival occasions, the US president delivered an message for Easter to the American people. Actually, President Obama called it his “Holiday” greeting, which in itself is rather telling. In his peroration, Mr Obama quoted from a morale-boosting Easter sermon given to US troops by a Christian clergyman just six days after America had conquered the Japanese on the island of Iwo Jima in a ferocious five-week battle with 20,000 casualties on each side. But he chose to leave out a crucial passage, which happens to feature the central figure of Easter - Jesus Christ. Without the latter Easter is meaningless. Here is the relevant section of the president's speech, with the omitted bits shown [bracketed in bold]. You can listen to 3˝ minutes of the original sermon here.
Removing Christ from Easter in this way was no accident. It is part of the president's campaign to delegitimize Christianity while continuing to pretend to particular audiences that he is a true believer. Of course his Muslim audience, nodding and winking over his middle name, are convinced otherwise.
96 - 38 + 97 - 82 - 12 = ? Can you reach the answer (61) in the time it takes to read out the figures? I certainly cannot. Yet, for a classroom of average six-year-old schoolchildren in Hong Kong, this seems no bother at all. They just imagine, within their tiny heads, an abacus or their fingers counting, and out pops the (correct) answer in seconds. Watch the first four minutes of this Youtube clip from a recent documentary about Britain's former colony by Gryff Rhys Jones, and be astounded. Not only at these little kids' mental arithmetic capabilities but their command of English as a second language. The total dedication to learning among the Chinese in Hong Kong is something I became painfully familiar with as a teenager. I completed my final year of schooling at Wah Yan College in Hong Kong where I was the only white man. I passed my final exams but only by sitting them twice with two different examining boards and combining the best results from both! I then went on to study engineering at Hong Kong University where I was once again the only white man. This time I failed a couple of subjects and rather than repeat the year I left Hong Kong and completed my engineering studies in Ireland. What was apparent during two years studying amidst Chinese fellow-students was their total dedication to learning to the exclusion of practically everything else - sports, alcohol, girls, partying, even ordinary friendship. Seven days a week, you woke, you ate, you went to lectures, you studied (till the early hours), you went to bed. It was a fiercely competitive environment, which did little to develop the personality but certainly achieved high academic standards. I was astonished - and delighted - when I got to University College Dublin at
So back to those little Chinese kids today. How many PhDs will they have by the time they grow from six years to 26? That is the frightening kind of global intellectual competition that modern youngsters here in the West are going to have to face. And, as the Youtube clip vividly shows, the contest clearly starts at kindergarten level. Ireland is steadily falling back in its training of mathematicians, scientists and engineers, the only professions that actually create new wealth. This seems largely because teachers (and the media) tell youngsters that these technical subjects are too difficult (ie too difficult for the mediocre teachers) and therefore they should take up easier subjects like accountancy, history, media studies, languages. This is apparently rather a common trend across the developed world. In this context, it defies belief to hear Mary Coughlan, Ireland's half-witted Education & Skills Minister and Tánaiste (deputy prime minister) recently demand that universities and colleges accept school-leavers who have failed their “honours” (ie higher-level) mathematics examinations. Her state-run school system is incapable of educating kids to pass the exams needed to get in to university, so her “solution” is simply to lower the bar. Yup, according to her, that's the way to create the great engineers of the future. Pass the problem of under-educated teenagers from the schools to the universities, just as the Catholic Church is roundly and rightly castigated for passing the problem of paedophile priests from one parish to another. Look again at those calculating Chinese six-year-old children. With ministers like Ms Coughlan, does the West have any hope of staying ahead of the intellectual curve? Late Note (18th May): Graham in Perth (Oz) writes to say that
Teachers are too thick, it seems, to
teach The Ozzies can surely adopt Ms
Coughlan's Irish solution
Scandal! Counterfeit Hair Straighteners Heard the one about the Navy rating who was court-martialed for possession of counterfeit hair-straighteners? What about the sailor in trouble because he had a leak while on board? Ah the old jokes, they're always the best ones; it's the way you tell 'em. What's that? They're not jokes? They're for real? You must be joking. Able Seaman Eoin Gray served on the LÉ
Orla, a proud Peacock coastal patrol vessel of the Irish Naval Service.
A month ago Mr Gray was court-martialed in Dublin's McKee Barracks
because his eight hair-straighteners (yes, I know, today's sailors
aren't what they used to be) are all
counterfeit.
Sure, there were a couple of unrelated trivial matters. A/B Gray was also charged with a snort or two of cocaine and something about leaking of State ships at sea (then why are they at sea?). But the hair straighteners are clearly the big one. If you think the scandal of counterfeit hair straighteners is of little consequence, tremble at the dire warning spelled out in Wales by the intrepid Department of Trading Standards within the Vale of Glamorgan Council:
And in Australia, hair straighteners can get you killed (as columnist Mark Steyn helpfully points out). So the Navy certainly knows its priorities - stick with the sailors' naturally curly hair. Hah! I'd like to see some dastardly foreign naval power try to mount a sea-borne invasion requiring them to take on the Irish Naval Service. They might be encouraged by the leaks or the white powder. But one look at the undamaged naturally curly hair of its ferocious men-of-oak, and they'd soon turn tail. I once lost a pub quiz by just one point
The question was where do women mostly
have curly hair? Hat tip: Dave Parker in Spain
Be careful who you lend your raincoat to ...
Issue 205’s Comments to Cyberspace While I've been lazy in recent weeks about blogging, I have still been harassing innocent publishers with my witterings online.
- - - - - U K - - - - - Quote: “That was a disaster. You should never have put me with that woman. Whose idea was that? ... It’s Sue [Nye] I think. It's just ridiculous ... [Gillian Duffy]is just a sort of bigoted woman that said she used to be Labour. I mean it's just ridiculous. I don't know why Sue brought her up towards me.”
Gordon Brown implodes Labour's re-election campaign, He had forgotten his TV mike was still switched on.
The cause of his ire was that Mrs Duffy dared
Labour of course has spectacularly and secretly - - - - - I R E L A N D - - - - - Quote: “Show me the money.”
Matthew Elderfield, Ireland's Finance
Regulator,
Sean Quinn the founder claims his company is
healthy
The tough Mr Elderfield was brought in from
England Quote: “The current economic situation is pretty much testosterone driven.”
Mary McAleese, Ireland's president, makes another loopy remark,
Her last one was the ludicrous assertion, Quote: “The Roman Catholic Church in Ireland has lost all credibility.”
His Hairiness Rowan Williams, ArchMullah of
Canterbury,
No, not Islam - he's all in favour of that
No, this rival religion is one that - you know
- He later apologised. - - - - - V A T I C A N M A D N E S S - - - - - Quote: “The current violent and concentric attacks on the church and the Pontiff [over clerical sexual abuse of children] were reminiscent of the most shameful aspects of anti-Semitism.”
Fr Raniero Cantalamessa, preacher to the papal household,
With this kind of ridiculous drivel, - - - - - S O U T H A F R I C A M A D N E S S - - - - - Quote: “Get Security to remove this thingy ... Don't come here with that white tendency ... You are a small boy ... Bastard! ... You bloody agent!” Julius Malema, president of the ANC youth league, Mr Malema is 29 years old, which is a stretch on the word “youth”. Worryingly, South Africa's president Jacob Zuma has
described him - - - - - E U M A D N E S S - - - - - Quote: “Travelling for tourism today is a right.”
Antonio Tajani, the EU commissioner
He is piloting a programme whereby already beleaguered taxpayers - - - - - U S A M A D N E S S - - - - - Quote (p8): “Whether a given category of speech enjoys First Amendment protection depends upon a categorical balancing of the value of the speech against its societal costs.”
US Solicitor General Elena Kagan, Barack Obama's nominee
Great. A would-be Supreme Court Justice who wants to Quote: “When it comes to foreign policy, it looks increasingly like there are three pillars to the “Obama Doctrine” –
Liz Cheney, daughter of Dick, spells out some
grim truths
Her speech elicited some wonderfully incoherent rebuttals,
I've often
remarked that the Left has to be more passionate Quote: “It is stupid for a country to treat old friends like belligerents and old belligerents like friends.”
Professor Victor Davis Hansen, in reference to
Quote: “I can understand Obama being touchy on the subject of producing your papers. Maybe he's afraid somebody's going to ask him for his.”
Radio host Rush Limbaugh finds a new way
He has made available only a
computer-generated
Quote: “The start of spring: otherwise known to Al Gore as proof of global warming.”
Ex-president Bill Clinton, who signed the Kyoto Protocol It seems Mr Clinton has now joined us deniers.
Mr & Mrs Obama will be similarly exempt Quote (Minute 1:16): “My fear is that the whole island [of Guam] will become so overly populated that it will tip over and capsize.”
Hank Johnson, US Democratic Congressman for
Georgia,
The Admiral replies, with exquisite politeness
and deference,
Mr Johnson's laughable
explanation confirms his raving lunacy,
Oh, and he issued the latter statement on April Fools Day.
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Why not tell your friends to click on www.tallrite.com/blog |
This post underlies an
Now for a little Light Relief
Tallrite Blog also accessible at
http://tinyurl.ie/g0
“”
 Wonderful family house for rent in The Hague |
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Gift Idea |
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BLOGROLL
Atlantic Blog (defunct) Blog-Irish (defunct)
Jihad
Religion
Iona Institute
Leisure
Blog Directory
My Columns in the
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What I'm
After recounting a childhood of convention and simple pleasures in working-class Aberdeen, Mr Urquhart is conscripted within days of Chamberlain declaring war on Germany in 1939. From then until the Japanese are deservedly nuked into surrendering six years later, Mr Urquhart’s tale is one of first discomfort but then following the fall of Singapore of ever-increasing, unmitigated horror. After a wretched journey Eastward, he finds himself part of Singapore’s big but useless garrison. Taken prisoner when Singapore falls in 1941, he is, successively,
Chronically ill, distraught and traumatised on return to Aberdeen yet disdained by the British Army, he slowly reconstructs a life. Only in his late 80s is he able finally to recount his dreadful experiences in this unputdownable book. There are very few first-person eye-witness accounts of the the horrors of Japanese brutality during WW2. As such this book is an invaluable historical document. +++++
This is a rattling good tale of the web of corruption within which the American president and his cronies operate. It's written by blogger Michele Malkin who, because she's both a woman and half-Asian, is curiously immune to the charges of racism and sexism this book would provoke if written by a typical Republican WASP. With 75 page of notes to back up - in best blogger tradition - every shocking and in most cases money-grubbing allegation, she excoriates one Obama crony after another, starting with the incumbent himself and his equally tricky wife. Joe Biden, Rahm Emmanuel, Valerie Jarett, Tim Geithner, Lawrence Summers, Steven Rattner, both Clintons, Chris Dodd: they all star as crooks in this venomous but credible book. ACORN, Mr Obama's favourite community organising outfit, is also exposed for the crooked vote-rigging machine it is. +++++
It is really just a collation of amusing little tales about surprising human (and occasionally animal) behaviour and situations. For example:
The book has no real message other than don't be surprised how humans sometimes behave and try to look for simple rather than complex solutions. And with a final anecdote (monkeys, cash and sex), the book suddenly just stops dead in its tracks. Weird. ++++++
It's chapters are organised around provocative questions such as
It's central thesis is that economic development continues to be impeded in different countries for different historical reasons, even when the original rationale for those impediments no longer obtains. For instance:
The author writes in a very chatty, light-hearted matter which makes the book easy to digest. However it would benefit from a few charts to illustrate some of the many quantitative points put forward, as well as sub-chaptering every few pages to provide natural break-points for the reader. +++++
The author was a member of Britain's V Force, a forerunner of the SAS. Its remit was to harass Japanese lines of command, patrol their occupied territory, carryout sabotage and provide intelligence, with the overall objective of keeping the enemy out of India. Irwin is admirably yet brutally frank, in his descriptions of deathly battles with the Japs, his execution of a prisoner, dodging falling bags of rice dropped by the RAF, or collapsing in floods of tears through accumulated stress, fear and loneliness. He also provides some fascinating insights into the mentality of Japanese soldiery and why it failed against the flexibility and devolved authority of the British. The book amounts to a very human and exhilarating tale. Oh, and Irwin describes the death in 1943 of his colleague my uncle, Major PF Brennan. +++++ Other books here |
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After
48
crackling, compelling, captivating games, the new World Champions are,
deservedly,
England get the Silver,
No-one can argue with
Over the competition, |
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Quote Minute 0:55 : “We [ie Americans] have killed hundreds and thousands of Afghans and Iraqis.”
Alan Grayson, Democratic Congressman from Florida
addresses the House in an appeal to, in effect,
declare defeat in the Middle East and run away.
But what is this ignoramus actually proclaiming?
The vast majority of killings of Afghans and Iraqis
have been perpetrated by depraved Islamic Jihadists
who want to deny Afghans and Iraqis their human rights
including the right to rule themselves.
The Americans (and Brits et al) are the ones
who are trying to PREVENT this slaughter.
If the Jihadists stopped their killing,
the Afghan war would be over, as indeed the Iraq war largely is.