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Irish Blasphemy

The Irish Constitution of 1937, which happens to be older than every one of Europe's constitutions save Belgium's (and Britain's unwritten one), begins with the words

“In the Name of the Most Holy Trinity, from Whom is all authority and to Whom, as our final end, all actions both of men and States must be referred, we, the people of Éire, humbly acknowledging all our obligations to our Divine Lord, Jesus Christ, who sustained our fathers through centuries of trial ... etc”

Though an article granting special recognition to Christian churches and Judaism was removed in 1973, this preamble remains. 

So does Article 40.6.1.i:

“The publication or utterance of blasphemous, seditious, or indecent matter is an offence which shall be punishable in accordance with law.”

However, since 1937 no blasphemy law has been enacted and only one case of blasphemy has been brought before the courts. The case in question was “Corway v Independent Newspapers” in 1999, in which Ireland's Supreme Court ruled that

“in the absence of any legislative definition of the constitutional offence of blasphemy, it is impossible to say of what the offence of blasphemy consists”. 

In other words, for over six decades, the constitutional ban on blasphemy has been happily dormant and evidently harming no-one. 

Yet last month, out of the blue and in the midst of the worst economic crisis since the founding of the State, Dermot Ahern, the Justice Minister suddenly finds he has too much time on his hands.  So decides to create an anti-blasphemy crime with an exceedingly low threshold and tough penalties. 

His new Defamation Act would define blasphemy merely as an utterance that is

“grossly abusive or insulting in relation to matters held sacred by any religion, thereby causing outrage among a substantial number of the adherents of that religion; and he or she intends, by the publication of the matter concerned, to cause such outrage”. 

It would authorise the police to take a break from catching murderers, rapists, child-molesters and thieves so as to force their way into private premises in order to seek and seize blasphemous material.  Convicted blasphemers would face a hefty €100,000 fine. 

Why?

And why is the proposed definition so open-ended?  To be blasphemed against, all you have to do is to decide to get yourself outraged. 

Suppose my religion is kissing dog-turds and I have only managed to convert one other person.  Nevertheless, every Tuesday, our Holy Day, the pair of us go out looking for dog-turds to kiss.  Next thing, some thug comes along and disrespectfully kicks away a dog-turd I am planning to kiss, tells me my religious practice is stupid and unhygienic and guffaws loudly at me.  Well I and my co-religionist, who represent 100% of our congregation, are naturally outraged.  When the dog-turd kicker then goes on to mock my religious practices in his blog and dares us dog-turd-kissers to abandon our sacred faith, we decide that our outrage knows no bounds.  So naturally we whinge to the police and in due course the blasphemer has to cough up a hundred grand.  With any luck we can then bring a civil suit and claim another hundred grand in damages for ourselves. 

The proposed law is an open invitation to be outraged, on the part of not just conventional religions but wacky ones as well (some would ask how you can tell the difference).  There exists another unwritten but universal law that if you provide an incentive for certain behaviour, whether good or bad, you will get more of it. 

Thus Mr Ahern's Defamation Act can only foster more blasphemy (whatever that is), the very thing that it supposedly sets out to suppress. 

Again, why is he doing it?  Who wants it?

Mr Ahern's claim that the Constitution obliges him (after 62 years!) to formulate a blasphemy law is disingenuous.  For the way he is designing it runs far beyond what Eamon de Valera and his fellow framers could have envisaged.  It is quite clear that they wrote the Constitution with an overwhelmingly Catholic bias - you can see this from the Preamble alone - and perhaps also to a lesser extent a Christian bias.  So when Article 40.6.1.i was written proscribing blasphemous matter, and in the same breath indecent matter, it is clear that it was the Catholic/Christian faiths and morals that were to be protected.  Indeed, the provision dates back to English common law aimed at protecting the established church, the Church of England, from attack. 

The notion that the framers intended similar protections for non-Christian faiths is preposterous. 

It is similarly preposterous to think that today's Christians are going to start invoking the would-be blasphemy law, when for many decades they have accepted with equanimity outrageous insults to their religion without letting their outrage get out of control much less lead to mayhem and murder. 

If such blasphemies (to a Christian) don't cause havoc in the streets, it means that Christians have learnt to accept criticism.  Indeed, if a faith cannot stand up to slating and mockery, it isn't much of a faith.  Christians (and I am one) don't need the law to protect their religious beliefs. 

On the other hand, can you think of any particular group that might decide to be massively and easily offended by blasphemy, to the extent of rioting and killing hundreds of people?  Inflamed by, for example, a few pathetic cartoons, or a teddy bear, or remarks about a prophet's taste in good-looking women?  A group that would undoubtedly welcome a law which, should they wish certain blasphemers to be persecuted and punished, requires only that they express outrage?  A law that allows them alone to decide, by their level of outrage, what is blasphemy and what is not?

For the wilder elements of Islam is precisely whom the new law is intended to appease, or at any rate it is the only group who will “benefit” from it. 

Only the most cursory of analysis, such as I have just laid out, is sufficient to draw the conclusion that Mr Ahern's proposed new law is designed solely to appease Islamists not Christians.  Stupid as Ireland's hapless Justice minister may be, this will be obvious even to him.  Why he would want to present such appeasement and foster such mayhem is known only to him.  But it is part of a general trend among the enlightened intelligentsia in the west to accommodate the principles of sharia at every opportunity, from the Archbishop of Canterbury onwards. 

If the Minister were really concerned about the constitutional provision, rather than kow-towing to Muslim sensibilities, he would construct his new law in terms of Christian blasphemy only, as the framers of the Constitution undoubtedly intended. 

Or he would remove the provision altogether.  The excuse he trots our for not doing so is that “in the current economic environment” it is not “appropriate” to hold a referendum to delete blasphemy from the Constitution.  But this is to ignore the referendum that will be held in October 2009 to vote down the Lisbon Treaty (for the second time).  A blasphemy referendum could be held simultaneously for little extra cost, and the problem would simply fade away, since the outcome is not in doubt. 

I am a Christian who hates encountering blasphemy against Christianity, though I am pretty relaxed when it targets other religions.  But I am firmly with the pro-blasphemy crowd on this.  I would not support even a Christianity-only blasphemy law. 

As I inferred earlier, if I fear that I and my co-religionists will lose our faith simply because people say offensive things about it, then we might as well let it go anyway because it means our convictions are entirely tenuous. 

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What a Palestinian State Will Look Like

Barack Obama is the latest in a long line of US presidents to try to strong-arm Israel into accepting a two-state solution.  (Actually, this would be a three-state solution since in 1946 the Palestinians were already given one, called Jordan, whose first significant act of foreign policy was to declare war on Israel when it was formed two years later.)      “”“”“”

Once again continuing the policies of the predecessor he despises, Mr Obama cites George Bush's Roadmap for Peace.  He urges Israel to fulfil its Roadmap commitments to halt West Bank settlements and open its borders to Gaza etc, while studiously ignoring the trivial requirement that Palestinians must “immediately undertake an unconditional cessation of violence”, to quote from the very first sentence. 

This is a momentous sentence indeed, because in just a few words it solves the whole Middle East conundrum: once the Palestinians stop attacking, the war is over and permanent negotiations can be quickly concluded.  Unfortunately, it doesn't work the other way round, as has been tried many times. 

However only Israel, it seems, it expected to stick to its side of the bargain.  It is too much to expect the other side to cease its violence. 

But the new Israeli prime minister, Benyamin Netanyahu, is a tough nut for Mr Obama to crack.  Indeed, it is likely that their recent meeting was the first time in his life that Mr Obama, cocooned hitherto in his Chicago left-wing semi-academic semi-crooked milieu, has encountered serious, rational, intellectual confrontation.  For Mr Netanyahu is not someone to roll over under the Messiah's charm and oratory; Israel's very survival depends on his fortitude.  And right now, Mr Netanyahu cannot foresee any circumstances in which he would dare countenance a new Palestinian State. 

Would you?

For what would it look like?

Well, actually there is already a model, called Gaza.  To all intents and purposes it is already a 100% Palestinian state, with its own elected government and - thanks to lavish funds from the EU, US and various Arab states - an income far beyond what it is actually able to earn, plus the support of 370 million Muslims, its Arab and Iranian neighbours.  And not a Jew in sight. 

If ever there was a laboratory to experiment with how Palestinian statehood might look, Gaza is surely it. 

And what a horror.  For its own people and for its neighbours, especially Israel under relentless rocket attack. 

Far from trying to build a nascent nation, with schools, hospitals, police, public services, government institutions, the Palestinian leadership immediately set about destroying whatever the Israelis had left behind when they unilaterally pulled out.  This included a thriving agricultural industry with revenue and profits and other businesses, yet within hours, the Palestinians had destroyed all those infidel green houses, and now - quel surprise - Gazans are short of food (and everything else).  And this early destruction occurred, remember, under the rule of “moderate” Fatah, not “extremist” Hamas (like there's a fundamental difference). 

Even mighty Egypt is horrified at what it sees on the other side of its eastern border.  That's why it continues to imprison Gaza's population rather than open its crossing at Rafah and risk having untold numbers of Gazan Palestinians run riot and cause mayhem within Egypt. 

Moreover, there is no sign that Gaza might just be going through a difficult birthing phase as it transits to some better place.  If anything, it’s getting worse under Hamas.  There is no sign of any mollification in the way Gaza is governed, or in the anti-Jew propaganda spewed over the airwaves or indoctrinated into schoolkids.  And the thought that Gaza - or Palestine - could ever become a normal state where, for example, Jews and Christians can freely live and participate, as Muslims do within Israel, is just laughable.  Racism, Judaeophobia, Christianophobia and apartheid are deeply ingrained in the soul of the Muslim and Palestinian world.  Hamas, Fatah, Iran, Libya, Saudi Arabia: not one has ever wanted to see a Palestinian state so long as Israel and Jews exist.  It is only deluded Westerners such as Mr Obama who dream of a two-state solution.  Everyone else wants a one-state Muslim-only Judenfrei solution. 

What you see in Gaza today is what you will get in a new Palestinian state.  Perpetual war until Israel is gone and every Jew is dead. 

And Mr Obama expects Mr Netanyahu to sign up to this?

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Astronomical Perspective

Non-astronomers like me will find it fascinating and enlightening to see our planets and stars presented in the following way. 

Beyond our insignificant little sun, it's a big universe out there.

Yet Antares, more than a thousand light-years away,  is only the fifteenth brightest star in our sky. It is more than 1000 light years away.

How big are you and I?

Now, try to wrap your mind around this ... This one of hundreds of thousands of images beamed back  by NASA's Hubble orbiting space telescope. 

It is an ultra deep field infrared view of countless “entire” galaxies billions of light-years away.

Below is a close-up of one of the darkest regions of the previous photo.

Humbling, isn't it?

So how big are you and I? And how big are the things that upset you and me today?

Let's keep life in astronomical perspective. We're not significant.  Don't let's sweat the small stuff! It's all under control!

Hat tip: Dave in Fuengirola, Spain

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Unfortunate Ainsley

Big, black and ebullient, Ainsley Harriott is Britain's best loved celebrity TV chef, so his recipes and endorsements are worth a lot. 

Here's one of them, sold in supermarkets in the UK and Ireland, until someone twigged ...

Hat tip: Frances in Exeter

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British Politicians are Sorry So Sorry

So long as you're not a member of the political class, and not British, the expenses scandal unfolding in Britain over the past couple of weeks has cheered everybody up.  Diddling taxpayers money for duck houses, moats and pornography: what a laugh for the non-diddlers and non taxpayers. 

A lot of the sniggers are, I predict, going to die out over the coming months however.  Because the more awful British politicians look and the more they set about putting their house back in order - and they are certainly doing this - the more politicians in the rest of the west are going to get nervous.  Already the expenses scrutiny is spreading to the target-rich area of EU politicians in Brussels, an entity whose financial accounts have not been signed off by the Auditors for 14 consecutive yeears. 

To me it is inconceivable that similar expenses shenanigans are not also going on in other upright European countries, France, Italy, Germany, Romania ...

And how long before the Americans too start shifting in their seats and examing their shoes?  We all know that President Obama is, how shall we say, relaxed about being surrounded by crooks.  Can he be the only one?  A lot of American politicians are going to be destroyed for expenses scandals, you can be sure. 

Remember, you read it here first.

Here is a suggestion for Westminster.  Those MPs who represent constituencies outside London should receive just two sets of allowances and not a penny more:

Meanwhile, Gordon Brown, David Cameron and the rest of the British political establishment are telling everyone that they're sorry, so sorry ...

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Issue 193’s Comments to Cyberspace

There were two cyber contributions this time, the second of which prompted me to write this issue's lead item about what a future Palestinian state would look like. 

Back to List of Contents

Quotes for Issue 193

- - - - - - S R I    L A N K A - - - - - -

Quote: “We are a government that defeated terrorism at a time when others told us that it was not possible ... We have been able to defeat one of the most heinous terrorist groups in the world.”

Mahinda Rajapakse, president of Sri Lankan, speaking to its parliament.

Just as peace came to Northern Ireland only
after the military defeat of the IRA, or at least its neutralisation,
we can now expect peace to follow in Sri Lanka.

Sadly, peace will not come to the Middle East
until Arab terrorism is militarily defeated,
and only Israel is making any effort t oward this.

And for those who say military violence solves nothing,
I would respond with only two words:
“Germany, Japan”.

- - - - - - U S A - - - - - -

Quote: “We were not - I repeat - we were not told that waterboarding or any of these other enhanced interrogation methods were used.”

Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House of Congress
and second in line for the presidency should Mr Obama die,
denies that she was briefed by the CIA in 2002 and 2003 about waterboarding, though the record shows she was. 

So since she failed to object at the time,
her objections now are hypocritical. 

She may be driven from office as a result.

Quote: “We understood what the CIA was doing. We gave the CIA our bipartisan support.  We gave the CIA funding to carry out its activities. On a bipartisan basis, we asked if the CIA needed more support from Congress to carry out its mission against al-Qaeda.  I do not recall a single objection from my colleagues.”

Republican Congressman Porter Goss who was at the same briefing
as Ms Pelosi on 4th September 2002
in his capacity as chairman of the
House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence,
of which Ms Pelosi was a member.

Quote: “I can now confirm that the Bibles shown on Al Jazeera's clip were, in fact, collected by the chaplains and later destroyed.” 

Major Jennifer Willis, a US military spokeswoman,
explains the fate of privately-owned Bibles
translated into Afghanistan's Pashto and Dari languages,
after Al Jazeera TV ran a critical report. 

They were destined for US soldiers in Bagram
in case they wished, in their private time,
to give them, legally, to Afghan friends and colleagues.

The Obama administration wishes to deny to its own soldiers
the democratic ideals of freedom of religion and of the press
that such soldiers have given their lives to foster for others.

Quote: “The new dog I have is only five months old and his name is Champ, ... the smartest, coolest dog in the world.  My dog is smarter than Bo, [President Obama's] dog.”

Vice President Joe Biden, for reasons best known to himself,
decides to insult his boss's new pooch, who happens
to homonymously share a name with Mr Biden's son Beau.

Quote: “During the second hundred days, I will learn to go off the teleprompter and Joe Biden will learn to stay on the teleprompter.”

President Obama gets his own back
with a self-deprecating joke
about his loose-cannon Vice President

Quote: “There was also controversy when she [beauty queen Carrie Prejean, Miss California] stated her opposition to same-sex marriage. [Competition judge Donald] Trump pointed out that even Obama does not support same-sex marriage, and also he pointed out that he personally believes that marriage is a sacred institution between a man and a series of progressively younger women.”

Jimmy Kimmel, US late night chat-show host

- - - - - - V A T I C A N - - - - - -

Quote: “The Holy See supports the right of your people to a sovereign Palestinian homeland in the land of your forefathers, secure and at peace with its neighbours, and within internationally recognised borders.”

Pope Benedict XVI supports the creation of an additional Palestinian state
(he seems to have forgotten about Jordan)
without, it seems, placing a conditional onus on Palestinians
to behave in a civilised manner,
and in particular to stop attacking and vilifying Jews
and hounding Christians from the Holy Land.

As such, his words amount to moral posturing. 

- - - - - - E N E R G Y - - - - - -

Quote: “For every three new barrels that we find and bring onstream, two are needed to offset field declines.  And each  new barrel requires more money and brainpower to produce than the barrel it replaces.”

Jeroen van der Veer, Chief Executive of Shell
[where I worked for thirty years]

- - - - - - I R E L A N D - - - - - -

Quote: “Tesco should leave Ireland ... What has Tesco offered us since they came over to Ireland?  All we’ve seen is them exploiting Irish suppliers and continually pushing the prices down. They have been seeking price cuts of up to 20 per cent recently from Irish suppliers or else they will simply remove these products from their shelves. That’s disgraceful carry on.”

TD Ned O’Keeffe, a wealthy parliamentarian
from the discredited ruling Fianna Fáil party,
objects to Tesco, a  British supermarket chain,
providing cheaper goods to its Irish customers,
employing ten thousand mostly Irish people and
contributing millions in taxes to Ireland's exchequer

- - - - - - M O T O R S P O R T - - - - - -

Quote: “[Ferrari have been] rivalling the manufacturers of Viagra for cornering the market in cock-ups.”

Motor racing journalist Peter Gill
draws a conclusion after the Spanish Formula 1 Grand Prix

[Hat tip: Graham in Perth]

ISSUE #192 - 10^th May 2009 [317+236=553]

The Act provides for brutal penalties that cannot be ignored: Mr Eaton faces a life sentence; his consultancy an unlimited fine. 

The legislation was prompted by public outrage following major accidents such as the Paddington rail collision in 1999, attributed to “a catalogue of [management] failures to act”, which killed 31 people and injured 400.  Over 300 people are slaughtered at work in the UK every year, or 4.9 per million of population.  (The figure in Ireland is proportionately much worse - nearly 70 such fatalities, or 15.5 per million).  That is an awful lot of unnecessary death and suffering. 

The desire of the general public, on viewing some ghastly accident on their TV screens, to see guilty corporations crushed and heads rolling is understandable.  But the real question is whether punitive legislation such as the UK is now enacting will improve the overall safety situation or not. 

The answer is unequivocal: No, it will not. 

And here's the reason.  Every accident, by definition, is the result of an array of failures.  To dig right down to uncover these failures, the root causes of the accident, requires a very thorough investigation,

Such discoveries can only come from talking in depth to real people close and not so close to the event in question, and trying to elicit honest information and recollection, and persuading them to divulge documents and data.  People hate talking to investigators in such circumstances and it is a hard job to encourage and reassure them. 

Responsible, ethical companies will always do their best to make all this happen and to co-operate with the authorities to the fullest extent.  But this requires a kind of Faustian bargain - that, short of deliberate sabotage, the failures uncovered by disclosure and openness do not lead to punishment. 

Britain's “Corporate Manslaughter and Corporate Homicide Act 2007” breaks this pact spectacularly and the law of unintended consequences will ensue as night follows day. 

From now on, the objective of any major investigation, from the Corporate perspective, will no longer be to uncover the truth but to protect companies and individuals from the rigours of the law.  And it will not just be senior managers trying to keep their heads down, but everyone involved in an enterprise, for fear he/she might be the next to be marched off to prison for a silly mistake at work (all mistakes are silly). 

How can it be otherwise?  When do turkeys vote for Christmas? 

So future Heralds of Free Enterprise will be sunk because junior employees don't speak Japanese, and that will be the focus of the remedial action. 

Since the real causes of accidents will not be found out or put right, the unintended consequence of punishing Corporate Manslaughter will therefore be to foster more, not less, Corporate Manslaughter.  And those victims will die in vain, solely to satisfy the conceit of rabble-rousing, thoughtless, amoral lawmakers.  Those extra deaths would better be called Lawmakers Manslaughter. 

I sincerely hope Ireland does not follow the UK path, though it has been mooted and Sinn Fein is keen.

Issue 192’s Comments to Cyberspace

Just a couple of contributions over the past month:

Back to List of Contents

Quotes for Issue 192

- - - - - - O B A M A - - - - - -

Quote: “Hey, Mister Obama! It's me, Berlusconi!”

Silvio Berlusconi, prime minister of Italy,
yells across at the US president during a G20 group photoshoot. 

Queen Elizabeth looked around and complained,
“Why does he have to shout?”

Quote: “Economists on both the left and right agree that the last thing a government should do in the middle of a recession is to cut back on spending.” 

President Barack Obama. 

But if I as an individual short of money
must cut back on my spending,
where is the logic that a government
- which is but an assembly of individuals - should increase spending?

Quote: “I think it is important for Europe to understand that even though I am president and George Bush is not president, al-Qaeda is still a threat and that we cannot pretend somehow that because Barack Hussein Obama got elected as president, suddenly everything's going to be OK.”

In Strasbourg during his Apology Tour,
President Obama trashes the previous president
- to non-Americans, as usual

Quote: “We meet today as three sovereign nations joined by a common  goal: to disrupt, dismantle and defeat al-Qaeda and its extremist allies in Pakistan and Afghanistan.”

A rare and welcome display of unequivocal belligerence
from President Barack Obama, after meeting with
Presidents Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan and Asif Ali Zadari of Pakistan.

Mr Obama has never talked of “defeating” anyone before,
other than his political opponents.

- - - - - - M I D D L E   E A S T - - - - - -

Quote: “[Syria] can demand the Golan Heights in exchange for peace, we will demand peace for peace.”

Avigdor Lieberman, Israel's hardline new foreign minister,
makes a startlingly simple demand of Syria
who want to re-open peace negotiations.

Quote: “If a woman says no, the man has the right not to feed her.”

Ayatollah Mohammed Asef Mohseni
explains the workings of the new Afghan law
signed by president Hamid Karzai
which mandates that Shi'ite women must submit to their husbands
- or go hungry.

Apparently this generous arrangement
means he is not allowed to rape her. 

Quote: “In the early years of Muslim history, the 8th-9th century of the Christian era, the battle over free or rational thinking was fought and lost in Baghdad, the capital of the Abbasid caliphate and the heart of the rapidly expanding Islamic empire and civilization.

“The Muslim free thinkers, those who insisted upon rational inquiry and reason to be taken legitimately as one of the means to understand and explain revelation, were officially labelled as blasphemers and apostates, hounded in public and silenced by imprisonment or capital punishment.

“Then the inevitable followed, the lights began to go out in the Islamic civilization and eventually darkness prevailed.”

Salim Mansur, associate professor of political science
at the University of Western Ontario in Canada,
explains how, over a thousand years ago, denial of free speech
brought a burgeoning Islamic civilization
to an abrupt halt. 

It drove the Muslim world into what he calls
the “black hole of ignorance, bigotry and violence”
which prevails to this day.

Quote: “We expect these tourists will convey a positive message to their citizens back home that the situation in Iraq is good.”

Abdul Zahra al-Telagani, a spokesman for Iraq's tourism and antiquities ministry,
is talking about newlyweds who (for €165)
have spent their nuptial night in Saddam's palatial boudoir
in his presidential palace at Hillah, some 100 km south of Baghdad.  

Though Mr al-Telgani is undoubtedly a determined optimist
in the face of Iraq’s remaining violence,
this nevertheless is another example of the normality
that is creeping up on Iraq
thanks to the crushing defeat of Al Qaeda there.

- - - - - - C A M B O D I A - - - - - -

Quote: “I am responsible for the crimes committed at S-21, especially the torture and execution of the people there. May I be permitted to apologise to the survivors of the regime and also the families of the victims whose loved ones died brutally at S-21 ... I beg their forgiveness.”

Kaing Guek Eav, a senior Khmer Rouge apparatchik
known as Comrade Duch,
at his trial for war crimes at a UN-backed tribunal
in the Cambodian capital of Phnom Penh. 

He used to be the director of Tuol Sleng, or S-21,
the regime's most notorious prison and main torture centre,
where between 1977 and 1979 thousands of men, women and children
were tortured and up to 17,000 of them killed.

- - - - - - S O U T H   A F R I C A - - - - - -

Quote: “You touch the ANC, you touch a lion.”

Jacob Zuma, party leader of the ANC
and new president of South Africa,
following the ANC's third landslide victory in a row in South Africa

- - - - - - U K - - - - -

Quote: “Mayday, mayday - oh, f***.”

The last, despairing call from the pilot of a Super Puma helicopter
flying from BP's Miller platform in the North Sea,
just before it crashed into the sea with the loss of all sixteen lives,
18 kilometres east of Aberdeen in Scotland. 

The Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy poignantly observed
“Every day brave men and women work [in the North Sea]
to bring us the oil and gas our country needs.”

Quote: “I take full responsibility for what happen[ed] , and that's why the person responsible went immediately.”

Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown takes “full responsibility”
by making one of his senior personal aides responsible, after he
tried to orchestrate a smear campaign against senior Conservatives

Details here.

Quote: “Just give us a big grin to the camera ... No, no, let's see your teeth.  He hasn't got the best teeth in the world, but you can afford to go and get them done now if you like.” 

Claire Balding, smart-alecky
BBC TV sports commentator,
embarrasses jockey Liam Treadwell,
just after he has heroically
won the Grand National
riding outsider Mon Mome at 100-1. 

She and the BBC later apologised.

- - - - - - I R E L A N D - - - - - -

Quote: “The report contains not one single piece of evidence to support the assertion that the museum contains any looted art objects.  No evidence has ever been produced by Dr Samuels that the Hunts had any connection of any kind with any Nazi in the pre-war period, apart from contact in the normal course of his business as an art dealer with the director of the National Museum of Ireland, Adolf Mahr.”

Brian O’Connell, director of Shannon Heritage,
refutes the calumny that Ireland's Hunt Museum,
a legacy of philanthropists John & Gertrude Hunt,
contains artefacts looted from Jews by the Nazis.

Though this slur was comprehensively debunked two years ago,
the Simon Wiesenthal Centre continues to peddle it.

Quote: “One could say my life itself has been one long soundtrack. Music was my life, music brought me to life, and music is how I will be remembered long after I leave this life. When I die there will be a final waltz playing in my head, that only I can hear.” 

Maurice Jarre, prolific, Oscar-winning French composer
who died last month. 

He wrote the scores for 170 TV and cinema productions,
including Dr Zhivago, The Longest Day,
Fatal Attraction, Gorillas in the Mist. 

Except he never used these words. 

The quote is a self-confessed fake inserted,
as a “globalisation experiment”, 
by Dublin sociology undergraduate Shane Fitzgerald
into Wikipedia, and then picked up by countless lazy journalists
for obituaries in the BBC, the Guardian and across the world. 

Quote: “Be seen, be heard, be blue, believe!”

The frantic, pessimistic call to arms
for Leinster rugby supporters
prior to underdog Leinster's astonishing 25-6 demolition
of European champions Munster
in the Heineken Cup Semi-Final. 

The 82,208 fans filling Croke Park made this
the world's biggest club game in rugby history anywhere.

ISSUE #191 - 5^th April 2009 [288+1152=1440]

Stimulated Curse on Baby-Boomers

Occasionally, I have got into trouble over debts,  specifically not paying them or not paying them in time.  Usually this was due to forgetfulness in which case I would pay promptly when reminded, but sometimes it was because the money wasn't there, and wasn't even coming in.  I do not recall, however, a single instance where I was advised that the cure for my unpaid financial obligations was to borrow even more and to spend more and worry about settling my - by then much increased debt - at some indeterminate date in the future.  The universal advice was to stop spending and start earning and repay my creditors, a cure which never failed. 

I am no financial guru, but that is essentially why I feel very uncomfortable by the solutions proposed by Barack Obama, Gordon Brown and others more learned than I.  They say that the problem of financial institutions collapsing under gigantic toxic loans that will never be repaid and the associated world recession will be solved

This money will be repaid through future taxes once the global economies recover.  Like Colgate, this has a certain ring of confidence to it, but when you ponder why the solution to debt is additional debt it's looks more like a smear of toothpaste. 

You could argue that there might be some merit in a financial stimulus if funded by money you already have.  But certainly not if it requires trillions of dollars of debts so large that they can never be repaid via existing workers but must be passed on to their children and grandchildren.  If it's wrong for children to filch money from their mother's purse or their granddad's pocket, you have to wonder why the reverse is apparently OK, for that is what will have to happen.  Furthermore, with Europe's demographic suicide now well underway (birthrates of 1.3-1.9 babies per woman vs replacement rate of 2.1), there will not be any - or at least insufficient - grandchildren to pick up the tab. 

To the extent that there is virtue in a stimulus, however, there is already a huge one underway, and it's not costing the West a penny.  Consider -

Energy

A year ago the price of a barrel of oil was in the $140s; it averaged $99.6 for the year, according to the US Energy Information Administration.  Today it's in the $40s and is forecast to average around $42.1.

A year ago OECD consumption was averaging 47.8 million barrels per day; this year it's predicted to be down about 4% to 45.8m b/d.  When you do the sums, this means that the OECD spent $1.74 trillion on its oil in 2008, but this figure will be only $0.70 trn this year.  In other words, oil price alone will provide a stimulus to OECD economies of over a trillion dollars this year - roughly what the G20 has just agreed to give the IMF. 

But the OECD as a whole consumes in total some 240 quadrillion Btu of energy a year.  Oil's 45.8m b/d (equivalent to 97 qdrn Btu per year) thus works out at a 40% market share.   Since all energy prices roughly track that of oil, this means the total energy stimulus this year is in the order of $2½ trn. 

This could be compared to President Obama's $3.3 trn, except his is spread over several years and will have to be repaid by future generations, whereas the $2½ trn energy stimulus is happening in 2009 alone with no repayments at all. 

And this energy stimulus will continue

which is exactly the period for which you want and need a stimulus. 

People often say these days that money is the lifeblood of the economy which is why banks must be saved at all costs. 

Personally, I think oil is as much the lifeblood because it permeates through to every corner of business and life and therefore so will the energy stimulus. 

The energy price reductions that were seeing today will make everything else cheaper from food to logistics to agriculture to industry to construction; the effect is already  noticeable, which brings me to the next point. 

Deflation

Throughout my long and disreputable lifetime, prices have inexorably risen, sometimes fast, more often slowly.  But this year looks like being the first time that average prices could actually fall, for very many decades. 

On the one hand, this can have the negative effect of slowing spending as people wait to see can they buy the same thing more cheaply tomorrow.  On the other, however, lower prices make goods and services more accessible than they were a year ago. 

Though I can't begin to quantify it, this too would amount to a big financial stimulus: the same money being able to buy more than it could before. 

House Prices

The economic meltdown began when it became clear that householders in America with so-called sub-prime mortgages were going to default in large numbers.  These were people who had been granted mortgages even though it was clear that they did not, and were not likely to, have the means to repay them unless house prices continued to boom above the inflation rate ad infinitum.  They were very foolish to take out the loans; the lending institutions were equally foolish to provide them, though continually pressed to do so by posturing politicians anxious to show they “cared” about the less well off. 

But all price booms eventually burst.  For house prices the bursting began in America last year, first with those sub-prime properties, then with all American properties, and then across the globe.  The bigger the house price boom, the bigger the bust.  

For developers with acres of unsold properties this has been an unmitigated disaster, and only slight less so for millions of householders who have found themselves in negative equity.  And yet, this process too has its silver lining.

For the past decade, housing has become more and more out of reach for more and more people, especially the young; politicians have been devising ever more fancy wheezes to help “first-time buyers” by knocking a few percent off through tax breaks and other subsidies.  But with prices now crashing by up to 50% - both purchase prices and rents - such efforts are redundant.  Suddenly houses are worth closer to what it costs to build them. 

For would-be house buyers and renters, this too amounts to a huge financial stimulus that enables people to buy and rent accommodation at realistic prices for the first time in a decade, despite the associated misery of those who are foreclosed upon.  Nobody said Capitalism was merciful; just that it is the best and fairest system of wealth creation compared to all the others. 

Again, it is impossible to quantify the housing crash stimulus but it's definitely there and definitely huge.  And people will be better able to take advantage of it thanks to ...

Near Zero Interest Rates

Historically low interest rates are hurting prudent savers who are have been putting away deposits for years and conserving their accumulated wealth in cash rather than equities, but since they have nowhere else to go no-one else cares about them. 

However near zero interest rates also mean not only cheaper loans, but excellent margins for banks.  As well putting more cash in the pockets of existing borrowers, there is thus now a double incentive to borrow and invest anew, whether in homes or in industry, whilst the much-chastened banks are likely to stress-test their lendings far more scrupulously than during the boom. 

This adds up to yet another giant stimulus, again relatively cost-free if you discount the under-rewarded savers. 

People keep saying interest rates cannot go below zero, but I wonder.  Banks are, or should be, safe havens for our money.  It seems entirely plausible to me that they might one day decide to charge us for the privilege, just as we might have to pay a company to store our personal effects if, for example, we move abroad. 

Charging customers to store their money is in effect to impose a negative interest rate, which then raises the beguiling prospect of paying people to take out a mortgage, while still leaving a spread for the bank to make a profit!

So perhaps the interest-rate stimulus has still to get even bigger. 

Curse on the Baby-Boomers

I cannot calculate how many trillions the non-energy part of all these bonanzas will amount to, in addition to energy's $2½ trillion this year.  But it is remarkable that they are all, effectively, “do-nothing” stimuli. 

Suffice it to ask: why are OECD governments so keen to create further, artificial stimuli through debt, when they stay silent about the far bigger stimuli already coursing through their economies? 

For today’s baby-boomers will surely and righteously be cursed by their progeny for the massive stimulated debt legacy that we are unapologetically bestowing upon them with such cavalier nonchalance. 

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Windpower Can Never be Economic

A recent visitor to Venice exhorted me to go and have a look at that magical city before it sank beneath the sea.  No doubt a victim, I mused, of Nobel Laureate ex-VP Al Gore's global warming while not yet a beneficiary of POTUS#44 Barack Obama's promise to make the oceans recede.  But no, I was corrected, Venice's is a problem not of rising sea levels but of falling land, an altogether different challenge unrelated to man-induced climate change. 

Actually, more and more evidence, from all quarters, is emerging all the time that climate change itself is unrelated to “man-induced climate change”.  And that man's attempts to change “man-induced climate change” by doing clever green things is as ineffectual as his CO2 emissions and other anti-green activities. 

If you are a member of the climate changeology cult, it must be so embarrassing when you view the evidence. 

 Here are a few interesting recent reputable articles that back up the first three of these assertions. 

As for the fourth, I have reproduced an article “A heavy blow to wind power strategy” from the Offshore Engineer (where “offshore” means in the actual ocean rather rather than distant tax havens).  It was written last month by Michael Economides, a much respected engineering professor in Houston, whom I have met a number of times during consultancy activities in the Middle East.  (It's also available online but kind of awkward to get to.)  He makes a handful of points that are at the same time blindingly obvious yet - because they destroy the case for wind power - have remained largely unknown to the general populace. 

Wind power is “free” only to the extent that you ignore the price of installing and maintaining it, and - above all - the cost of construction, operation and fuel for back-up fossil-fuelled power for when the wind fails.  For it is an inconvenient truth that Mother Nature's wind is intrinsically unreliable.  Even in the UK which - like Ireland - has plenty of wind and coastline, the average load factor is only 27%.  Therefore you have to fall back on conventional power generation whenever the wind drops.  So for every megawatt of windpower you install,

Either way, regardless of whether you regard a landscape of wind turbines to be a visual abomination or a thing of beauty, it is a far more expensive option than convention power generation. 

Moreover, since windfarm backup power plants are usually built to the cheapest of standards, and such plants never like being continually started up and shut down again, they are inefficient, high-maintenance facilities that burn almost as much fuel as if you had no windpower at all. 

Due to this need for back-up power or power-storage, windpower can never, ever be economic in its own right.   

The result is that it is only viable when boosted by hefty, permanent taxpayer subsidies.  Last year, these amounted to a billion dollars in the UK alone, which will rise to six billion pa by 2020 to support 25 gigawatts of windpower.  That's how much the UK needs to meet its CO2 reduction obligations under the diabolical Kyoto protocol, having achieved a reduction from 1997 to 2005 of precisely zero percent. 

As Prof Economides summarises,

“Independent reports have consistently revealed an industry plagued by high construction and maintenance costs, highly volatile reliability and a voracious appetite for taxpayer subsidies ... Wind power [is] expensive, unreliable and it won’t [even] save natural gas.”

The necessary subsidies are, of course, all part of the extortionate $100 billion annual cost of meeting the CO2 demands of the Kyoto protocol on its 162 ratifiers. 

A colleague tells me he has installed a solar panel in the roof of his house.  With generous government green grants his payout is apparently three years, after which the savings on his electricity bills will go straight to his pocket.  No wonder everyone wants to emulate him.

But without the subsidies - another little chunk of Kyoto's $100 bn - the payout would be 29 years, which would obviously interest no-one.  This means that those taxpayers who do not avail of these subsidies are lining the pockets of those that do, all in the name of fighting climate change. 

If only all things that had a cost were paid for by someone else.  Let's start with my mortgage ... 

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Kow-Tow President

At the G20 summit in London, why does the elected president of the world's most successful democracy, one founded on “we the people”, feel he has to bow, bend his knee, kow-tow and grovel before the second-generation feudal monarch of one of the world's worst tyrannies? 

In Buckingham Palace he felt no such urge to even nod his head when introduced to the current incumbent of an ancient hereditary monarchy stretching back more than a thousand years.  A monarchical head of a fellow-democracy. 

No wonder France's president is laughing at him. 

Red-blooded Americans find their president's fawning behaviour offensive. 

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Armless Fun

What a heart-warming story the Sun put out last month. 

Wounded members of the British armed forces were invited to join the England soccer squad, during a break from training, for lunch at a hotel near Arsenal's training ground close to Watford.  In the midst of the merriment, David Beckham was introduced to Commando Ben McBean from the Royal Marines, who had had a leg blown off in Afghanistan.  As Mr Becks commiserated with him over his disabling loss, they shook hands warmly.  But he went pale as Officer McBean screamed, “My arm! My arm!”, for it had come off in his hand.  It was of course a prosthetic arm and Officer McBean was performing his latest party piece, with no sense of self-pity whatsoever. 

England were preparing for a couple of World Cup qualifier matches against Slovakia and Ukraine, which would be a very arduous and stressful process.  But England captain, John Terry, had it exactly right when he observed that it was the Servicemen and the Servicewomen in the battlefields of Afghanistan and Iraq who are the real lionhearts. 

As we cheer our favourite sports teams and sporting personalities to victory or lament their defeats, we should remember that these are just games.  What is going on in Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere is real life - and real death.  And that is where the real heroes, such as Officer McBean, are to be found and where many have given their brave young lives. 

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Naked Vaulter

French pole vaulter Romain Mesnil, silver medallist at the 2007 World Championships and also (according to himself) Vice Champion of Europe and of the World, has lost his clothing sponsorship from Nike, if not his clothing, and has come up with a novel way of publicising his plight in an effort to find a replacement sponsor.

He has posted on his website this video of him running naked through the streets of Paris, carrying a giant phallic symbol his pole as if about to vault, or something.  Naturally this quickly found its way to YouTube and several TV news bulletins.

There's no doubting the spread of his message, but you would think that the best thing is for the IAAF to ask him to compete in the nude. Judging from the expression on the faces of the people he runs past in the street, it would be a massive crowd puller.

But what would they pull? 

Hat tip: Graham in Perth

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Quotes for Issue 191

- - - - - -G 2 0 - - - - - -

Quote: “I think I can say that in an important conference we have found a very good, almost historic compromise in a unique crisis.  This time the world does not react as in the 1930's.”

German chancellor Angela Merkel
gives an encouragingly upbeat assessment
of the outcome of the G20 meeting in London.

The French president, Nicolas Sarkozy,
said the result was “more than we could have hoped for”.

Quote [private source]: “Don't worry mate, we've got them all on film and we'll pick them all up later and give them a good kicking in the back of the van.” 

An unnamed policeman, when asked
why the cops were not arresting people
who had just trashed a London branch of the Royal Bank of Scotland
as part of G20 demonstrations.
[Hat tip: Philip in Dublin]

Four young people were indeed later arrested for the offence
No news about the kicking.

- - - - - - O B A M A - - - - - -

Quote: “The Taliban fighters of the Mullah Dadullah Front in Afghanistan have rejected the offer of talks from US President Barack Obama to moderate Taliban and have said they are not ready to hold negotiations with Obama.”

The Taliban respond to president Barack Obama's
“call for negotiations with moderate Taliban”

Quote: “Today, thanks to great achievements, the threat to Iran has been lifted, and no power in the world entertains the notion of taking action against the Iranian nation.”

Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
responds to Mr Obama's “unclenched fist”

Quote: “President Barack Obama must stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons — and quickly — or an imperilled Israel may be forced to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities itself.”

Benyamin Netanyahu, the new Israeli prime minister
and an ex-Commando,
lays it on the line for the new American president:
stop Iran - or I will.

Mr Netanyahu believes history has shown that
Jews cannot afford to take a benign view of existential threats.

Quote: “We were seeing the same mismatch between the regulatory regimes that were in place and er ... pause [I'VE LOST MY TRAIN OF THOUGHT AGAIN] ... the highly integrated, er, global capital markets that have emerged ... pause [I'M REALLY WINGING IT NOW].... Dealing with the, er, problem of derivatives markets, making sure we have set up systems, er, that can reduce some of the risks there. So, I actually think ... pause [FANTASTIC. I'VE LOST EVERYONE, INCLUDING MYSELF] ... there's enormous consensus that has emerged in terms of what we need to do now and, er ... pause [I'M OUTTA HERE. TIME FOR THE USUAL CLOSING RUBBISH] ... I'm a great believer in looking forwards than looking backwards.”

President Obama, at his joint G20 press conference with Gordon Brown,
explains who is  to blame for the financial crisis
[Hat tip: Mark in New Hampshire]

Quote: “Did you know your first name means ‘Peach’ in Hungarian?  No? Well, now you do.”

A young lady from Heidelberg
sheds a fruity light on Barack Obama
during his “town hall” meeting in Strasbourg

- - - - - - U K - - - - - -

Quote: “Yesterday we had a very British coup d'état when the Governor of the Bank of England sent his tanks down the Mall, effectively seized control of the British economy through his command of monetary policy, and put the Government under house arrest.”

Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrat's Treasury spokesman,
terrifies the British Government
after Governor Mervyn King warned last month
that proposed Government debt was unsustainable.

Quote:  “The senior officer in charge is confident we handled this incident as professionally as possible. In a situation like that you could end up with more deceased bodies than you had in the first place.”

A South Yorkshire Police spokeswoman explains
why the police prevented neighbours
from rescuing three-year-old Louis Colly from his burning house
thereby ensuring that he was frazzled to death,
as were his father and mother
 who had been screaming
“Please save my kids!” 

Far from trying to rescue the child themselves,
South Yorkshire Police are not happy, it would seem,
unless the number of “deceased bodies” is high enough
to meet their exacting standards, in this case three.

Oh, and there were of course
no “deceased bodies in the first place”.

- - - - - - I R E L A N D - - - - - -

Quote: “Our constitution does not allow us to take on any non-nationals at the moment.” 

Derry Coughlan, Chairman of the Cork Taxi Drivers’ Association
claims that his 350-strong Association is neither discriminatory nor racist.

Lama Niankowe a Cork taxi driver from Nigeria says
he was told the Association was for Irish drivers only.

Quote [Setanta TV, not online]: “If Munster were in charge of the banks, we'd still all be rich.”

Daire O'Brien, TV sports commentator,
after Munster's rugby team had just scientifically and clinically
demolished their Irish arch-rivals Leinster, 22-5

Gift Idea
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looking for a home

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Discover the World

My Columns in the

 What I'm 
currently reading

A fascinating, meticulously researched study into what tips some particular phenomena - such as an idea, a procedure, a drug, a habit, a crimewave - from limited into widespread adoption, or indeed abstinence, but not others. 

Such “epidemics” of adoption depend not only on people who, variously,

but also on the inherent “contagion” and “stickiness” of the phenomenon itself, as well as on a nurturing external environment in which to spread. 

Countless convincing case studies and numbers are presented, but the volume sorely lacks charts to better illustrate the points being made. 

Moreover the book seems to be leading to a kind of “how to achieve a tipping point” climax, yet it leaves you frustrated because it never delivers one.

More details here.

++++++

A fascinating book, entertainingly written, in which an economist delves into the world of global commerce by trying to trade his way around the world.  Starting with £50,000, proceeds from the sale of his London home, he aims to double this sum in a year of travel. 

His endeavours - as many unsuccessful as not - include trades and exports of camels from Sudan, coffee from Zambia, chilli from South Africa, horses from Kyrgyzstan, jade across China, tea from Taiwan.  In each case he attempts to sell his product to the next stop on his journey. 

He also wants to test his theory that you can sell ice to the proverbial Eskimos provided you add some special angle to your ice. 

Does he end up with his £100,000?  You'll have to read the book!

To my astonishment, I've just (16 April 2009) viewed an episode about the adventure on UK's Channel 4 TV

+ + + +

A charmingly written, evocative story of a nine-year old German boy who makes friends with a Polish Jew of the same age who is confined within Auschwitz.  For more than a year they meet clandestinely, sitting and chatting earnestly, on either side of the wire fence that encloses the prison and extermination camp

The German boy does not understand that his friend is a prisoner denied all the privileges that he takes for granted. 

The book is written through the eyes of the boy and in the charming style
of a nine-year-old. 

+++++

King Leopold's Ghost: The Plunder of the Congo and the Twentieth Century's First Great International Human Rights Movement,
by Adam Hochschild.

Fascinating, wonderfully written, a page-turner, this book also includes a great account of Stanley's African adventures.

Above all, it is an appalling exposé of King Leopold II of the Belgians in his quest to obtain and exploit the Congo.  Out of a population of around twenty million he was responsible for the deaths of ten million, not to mention further millions mutilated through chopping off hands or feet or genitals (though most of those were already dead.) His use of the vicious chicotte (rawhide whip) averaged at one stage 12 strokes per Congolese worker. 

In percentage terms, Leopold's murder rate well exceeds those of fellow-monsters Mao (11%),
Stalin (14%), Lenin (5%),
Pol Pot (21%) or Hitler. 

Shamefully, however, his brutality was not unduly different from that perpetrated by the French and the Germans in Africa, by the British against Australian aborigines or by the Americans against the Red Indians. 

Leopold, personally, made over a billion dollars
in today's money
out of the Congo. 

+++++

 
Click on the logo
to get a table with
the Rugby World Cup
scores, points and rankings.

After 48 crackling, compelling, captivating games, the new World Champions are, deservedly,
SOUTH AFRICA

England get the Silver,
Argentina the Bronze.  Fourth is host nation France.

No-one can argue with
the justice of the outcomes